Forecasting effects of climate changes on the population genetic structure of Anacardium occidentale in the Cerrado biome, Brazil.

There has been a continuous interest in understanding the patterns of genetic diversity in natural populations because of the role of intraspecific genetic diversity as the basis of all evolutionary change and thus, its potential effects on population persistence when facing environmental changes. Here, we provided the first description of genetic diversity distribution and population structure of Anacardium occidentale L. (cashew) from the Brazilian Cerrado, one of the most economically important tropical crops in the world. We applied Bayesian clustering approaches (STRUCTURE and POPS) that allow predicting the effects of future climatic changes on the population genetic structure of A. occidentale. We identified distinct genetic groups corresponding to the southwestern, central, and northern regions of the species' range. The characterized genetic clusters will disappear under future climate change scenarios, leading to a homogenization of genetic variability across the landscape. Our findings suggest a high likelihood for the loss of genetic diversity, which in turn will reduce the evolutionary potential of the species to cope with predicted future climatic changes. Results from this study may help develop management strategies to conserve the genetic diversity and structure of natural cashew populations.