ArticleBMJ global health2023
Historical trends demonstrate a pattern of increasingly frequent and severe spillover events of high-consequence zoonotic viruses.
Article in BMJ global health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Emerging Viral Zoonotic Diseases, 2016-2026.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Pooled it
- A century of emergence: trends and patterns in human viral pathogens, 1900-2024, a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Zoonotic pathogens in equids in Central Europe: a systematic review.BMC veterinary research · 2025Pooled it
- Extracellular Vesicles as Molecular Regulators of Viral Infection: Implications for COVID-19 and Future Viral Pandemics.Current issues in molecular biology · 2026Review
- Toward a quality-managed operational architecture for wastewater surveillance of zoonotic and emerging pathogens.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2026Review
- Understanding zoonotic spillover interfaces for the design of a One Health education intervention: a qualitative baseline study from rural Thailand.One health outlook · 2026Article
- Species-specific barriers restrict virus spillover potential across the Caenorhabditis genus.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- Increased Risk of Infections in People Living With Diabetes.Diabetes · 2026Review
- Modelling land use-induced foraging distributions of flying foxes and emerging spillover risks.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Paleopathology Meets Public Health: Deep-Time Syndemics and the Ecology of Emerging Infections.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Predicting highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreak risk using extreme weather and bird migration data in machine learning models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Diverse novel and avian-associated viruses in the ileal viromes of Northern Mockingbird (Mimus polyglottos).Archives of virology · 2026Article
- Article
- Assessing retention of pandemic capacities from COVID-19 in humanitarian settings: A cross-sectional retrospective study of health workers in Honduras, Syria, and South Sudan.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Coincidence analysis: Identifying factors contributing to frontline health workers' confidence to face future pandemics across Honduras, Syria, and South Sudan.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- The impact of COVID-19 on healthcare workers: risk factors, sources of infection, and sickness absenteeism.Turkish journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- Building resilience: Assessing the Canadian Animal Health Surveillance System's strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities within Canada's early warning system for animal health.The Canadian veterinary journal = La revue veterinaire canadienne · 2026Article
- Proteomic Signatures of SARS-CoV-2 Susceptibility in Mexican Free-tailed Bats and Their Application to Viral Surveillance.Integrative and comparative biology · 2025Article
- Unveiling the global urban virome through wastewater metagenomics.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Adaptive ecosystem restoration to mitigate zoonotic risks.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has focused attention on patterns of infectious disease spillover. Climate and land-use changes are predicted to increase the frequency of zoonotic spillover events, which have been the cause of most modern epidemics. Characterising historical trends in zoonotic spillover can provide insights into the expected frequency and severity of future epidemics, but historical epidemiological data remains largely fragmented and difficult to analyse. We utilised our extensive epidemiological database to analyse a specific subset of high-consequence zoonotic spillover events for trends in the annual frequency and severity of outbreaks. Our analysis, which excludes the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, shows that the number of spillover events and reported deaths have been increasing by 4.98% (confidence interval [CI]95% [3.22%; 6.76%]) and 8.7% (CI 95% [4.06%; 13.62%]) annually, respectively. This trend can be altered by concerted global efforts to improve our capacity to prevent and contain outbreaks. Such efforts are needed to address this large and growing risk to global health.
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