Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37907453›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Climate change and land use threaten global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees.

Wen-Yong Guo, Josep M Serra-Diaz, Wolf L Eiserhardt, Brian S Maitner, Cory Merow, Cyrille Violle, Matthew J Pound, Miao Sun, Ferry Slik, Anne Blach-Overgaard and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  4. High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
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  8. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Wen-Yong GuoResearch Center for Global Change and Complex Ecosystems & Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, 200241, Shanghai, P. R. China. guowyhgy@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0002-4737-2042
Josep M Serra-DiazEversource Energy Center and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
Wolf L EiserhardtSection for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-8136-5233
Brian S MaitnerDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2118-9880
Cory MerowEversource Energy Center and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0561-053X
Cyrille ViolleCEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.ORCID 0000-0002-2471-9226
Matthew J PoundDepartment of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-8029-9548
Miao SunSection for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark.
Ferry SlikEnvironmental and Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Jalan Tungku Link, BE1410, Gadong, Brunei Darussalam.
Anne Blach-OvergaardCenter for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-0200-1547
Brian J EnquistDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA.
Jens-Christian SvenningCenter for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-3415-0862

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Across the globe, tree species are under high anthropogenic pressure. Risks of extinction are notably more severe for species with restricted ranges and distinct evolutionary histories. Here, we use a global dataset covering 41,835 species (65.1% of known tree species) to assess the spatial pattern of tree species' phylogenetic endemism, its macroecological drivers, and how future pressures may affect the conservation status of the identified hotspots. We found that low-to-mid latitudes host most endemism hotspots, with current climate being the strongest driver, and climatic stability across thousands to millions of years back in time as a major co-determinant. These hotspots are mostly located outside of protected areas and face relatively high land-use change and future climate change pressure. Our study highlights the risk from climate change for tree diversity and the necessity to strengthen conservation and restoration actions in global hotspots of phylogenetic endemism for trees to avoid major future losses of tree diversity.

Indexed as

BiodiversityClimate ChangeBiological EvolutionConservation of Natural ResourcesEcosystemPhylogeny

Identifiers

PMID37907453
PMCPMC10618213

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.