ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2023
Early Warning and Prediction of Scarlet Fever in China Using the Baidu Search Index and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average With Explanatory Variable (ARIMAX) Model: Time Series Analysis.
Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological status and developmental trends of sexual violence among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years: a global analysis and projections.Annals of medicine · 2026Article
- Global and Chinese burden of three major non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Large language models as versatile predictive engines for notifiable infectious diseases.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Predicting the incidence of syphilis in China using Baidu search index and an ARIMAX model.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- An ARIMAX model integrating Baidu index for improved hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence prediction.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Risk Prediction in Southern China: Time Series Study Integrating Web-Based Search and Epidemiological Surveillance Data.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Article
- Public interest in online searching of asthma information: insights from a Google trends analysis.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2025Article
- Temporal trends in prevalence and years of life lived with disability for hearing loss in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Global burden of lung cancer attributable to metabolic and dietary risk factors: an overview of 3 decades and forecasted trends to 2036.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
- A hybrid integration framework based on LOOCV and SARIMA: relationship exploring and predictive analysis between discipline attention and literature research.PeerJ. Computer science · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Incidence of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in China Based on SARIMA Models Between 2013 and 2021.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundInternet-derived data and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) models are extensively used for infectious disease surveillance. However, the effectiveness of the Baidu search index (BSI) in predicting the incidence of scarlet fever remains uncertain.
objectiveOur objective was to investigate whether a low-cost BSI monitoring system could potentially function as a valuable complement to traditional scarlet fever surveillance in China.
methodsARIMA and ARIMAX models were developed to predict the incidence of scarlet fever in China using data from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China between January 2011 and August 2022. The procedures included establishing a keyword database, keyword selection and filtering through Spearman rank correlation and cross-correlation analyses, construction of the scarlet fever comprehensive search index (CSI), modeling with the training sets, predicting with the testing sets, and comparing the prediction performances.
resultsThe average monthly incidence of scarlet fever was 4462.17 (SD 3011.75) cases, and annual incidence exhibited an upward trend until 2019. The keyword database contained 52 keywords, but only 6 highly relevant ones were selected for modeling. A high Spearman rank correlation was observed between the scarlet fever reported cases and the scarlet fever CSI (r
conclusionsThis study demonstrated that the BSI can be used for the early warning and prediction of scarlet fever, serving as a valuable supplement to traditional surveillance systems.
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