ArticleCirculation2023
Projected Change in the Burden of Excess Cardiovascular Deaths Associated With Extreme Heat by Midcentury (2036-2065) in the Contiguous United States.
Article in Circulation, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- PM2.5 toxin benzo[a]pyrene induces life-limiting inflammation and oxidative stress in the airway by up-regulation of TRPC6 and inactivation of β2AR/CFTR signaling.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Disparities in County-Level Vulnerability to Cardiovascular Mortality Associated With Extreme Heat Exposure.JACC. Advances · 2026Article
- CVD Environmental Health Disparities Tool: systematic evidence mapping of psychosocial stressors, environmental exposures, and cardiovascular diseases to inform disparities research and action.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Review
- Critical Temperature Thresholds for Identifying Vulnerability to Heat-Related Excess Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Article
- "Predictive Factors and Nomogram for 30-Day Mortality in Heatstroke Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study".The western journal of emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Emergency Department Management of Acute Heatstroke: A Retrospective Analysis from Phoenix, Arizona.The western journal of emergency medicine · 2025Observational
- Cardiovascular challenges of aging in a hotter environment: a narrative review.Journal of applied physiology (Bethesda, Md. : 1985) · 2025Review
- Metrics of Urbanicity and Rurality in US-Based Epidemiologic Studies of Ambient Temperature and Health: A Scoping Review.Current environmental health reports · 2025Article
- A Healthcare System's Path to Carbon Neutrality: Addressing Climate Change and Role of the Health Care.AJPM focus · 2025Article
- Influence of Daily Meteorological Changes on Stroke Incidence Across the United States.The western journal of emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Projections of Heat-Related Mortality in Chinese Cities: The Roles of Climate Change, Urbanization, Socioeconomic Adaptation, and Landscape-Level Strategies.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Article
- Impact of extreme heat on health in Australia: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Causal effect of PMFrontiers in big data · 2025Article
- Article
- Comparative global burden of ischemic heart disease and myocardial disease attributable to non-optimal temperatures, 1990-2021: an analysis based on GBD 2021.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Effects of Extreme Humidity and Heat on Ventricular Arrhythmia Risk in Patients With Cardiac Devices.JACC. Advances · 2025Article
- Primary Prevention of Coronary and Other Cardiovascular Diseases: A Focused Review.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2024Review
- Biological sex impacts oxidative stress in skeletal muscle in a porcine heat stress model.American journal of physiology. Regulatory, integrative and comparative physiology · 2024Article
- Past, present, and future of sustainable intensive care: narrative review and a large hospital system experience.Critical care (London, England) · 2024Review
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4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClimate change is causing an increase in extreme heat. Individuals with cardiovascular disease are at high risk of heat-related adverse health effects. How the burden of extreme heat-associated cardiovascular deaths in the United States will change with the projected rise in extreme heat is unknown.
methodsWe obtained data on cardiovascular deaths among adults and the number of extreme heat days (maximum heat index ≥90 °F [32.2 °C]) in each county in the contiguous United States from 2008 to 2019. Based on representative concentration pathway trajectories that model greenhouse gas emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) that model future socioeconomic scenarios and demographic projections, we obtained county-level projected numbers of extreme heat days and populations under 2 scenarios for the midcentury period 2036 to 2065: SSP2-4.5 (representing demographic projections from a "middle-of-the-road" socioeconomic scenario and an intermediate increase in emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (demographic projections in an economy based on "fossil-fueled development" and a large increase in emissions). The association of cardiovascular mortality with extreme heat was estimated with a Poisson fixed-effects model. Using estimates from this model, the projected number of excess cardiovascular deaths associated with extreme heat was calculated.
resultsExtreme heat was associated with 1651 (95% CI, 921-2381) excess cardiovascular deaths per year from 2008 to 2019. By midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with 4320 (95% CI, 2369-6272) excess deaths annually, which is an increase of 162% (95% CI, 142-182) under SSP2-4.5, and 5491 (95% CI, 3011-7972) annual excess deaths, which is an increase of 233% (95% CI, 206-259) under SSP5-8.5. Elderly adults are projected to have a 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2-3.8) times greater increase in deaths in the SSP2-4.5 scenario compared with nonelderly adults. Non-Hispanic Black adults are projected to have a 4.6 (95% CI, 2.8-6.4) times greater increase compared with non-Hispanic White adults. The projected change in deaths was not statistically significantly different for other race and ethnicity groups or between men and women.
conclusionsBy midcentury, extreme heat is projected to be associated with a significantly greater burden of excess cardiovascular deaths in the contiguous United States.
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