Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37898518›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2023

Dementia incidence trend in England and Wales, 2002-19, and projection for dementia burden to 2040: analysis of data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Yuntao Chen, Piotr Bandosz, George Stoye, Yuyang Liu, Yanjuan Wu, Sophia Lobanov-Rostovsky, Eric French, Mika Kivimaki, Gill Livingston, Jing Liao and 1 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 53 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  19. Real-world prediction of early-onset dementia by health record data: A multi-center machine learning study.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Yuntao ChenDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK. Electronic address: yuntao.chen@ucl.ac.uk.
Piotr BandoszDivision of Prevention Medicine & Education, Medical University of Gdansk, Gdansk, Poland.
George StoyeInstitute for Fiscal Studies, London, UK.
Yuyang LiuDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Yanjuan WuDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Sophia Lobanov-RostovskyDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Eric FrenchFaculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Mika KivimakiDivision of Psychiatry, University College London, London, UK.
Gill LivingstonDivision of Psychiatry, University College London, London, UK.
Jing LiaoDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Eric J BrunnerDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

Education, socioeconomic status and Aging: transitions from multimorbidity to functional limitations and mortalityR01AG056477 · NIA · UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON · PI KIVIMAKI, MIKA J, SINGH-MANOUX, ARCHANA · 2018 to 2022
$2.8M
Role of mid- and late-life risk factors in social inequalities in Alzheimer's Disease and Related DementiasRF1AG062553 · NIA · INSERM PARIS 5 · PI KIVIMAKI, MIKA J, SINGH-MANOUX, ARCHANA · 2019 to 2019
$1.5M
Medical Research Council MR/S011676/1Medical Research Council R024227Medical Research Council S011676NIA NIH HHS R01 AG056477NIA NIH HHS RF1 AG062553Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 221854/Z/20/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDementia incidence declined in many high-income countries in the 2000s, but evidence on the post-2010 trend is scarce. We aimed to analyse the temporal trend in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019, considering bias and non-linearity.

methodsPopulation-based panel data representing adults aged 50 years and older from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were linked to the mortality register across wave 1 (2002-03) to wave 9 (2018-19) (90 073 person observations). Standard criteria based on cognitive and functional impairment were used to ascertain incident dementia. Crude incidence rates were determined in seven overlapping initially dementia-free subcohorts each followed up for 4 years (ie, 2002-06, 2004-08, 2006-10, 2008-12, 2010-14, 2012-16, and 2014-18). We examined the temporal trend of dementia incidence according to age, sex, and educational attainment. We estimated the trend of dementia incidence adjusted by age and sex with Cox proportional hazards and multistate models. Restricted cubic splines allowed for potential non-linearity in the time trend. A Markov model was used to project future dementia burden considering the estimated incidence trend.

findingsIncidence rate standardised by age and sex declined from 2002 to 2010 (from 10·7 to 8·6 per 1000 person-years), then increased from 2010 to 2019 (from 8·6 to 11·3 per 1000 person-years). Adjusting for age and sex, and accounting for missing dementia cases due to death, estimated dementia incidence declined by 28·8% from 2002 to 2008 (incidence rate ratio 0·71, 95% CI 0·58-0·88), and increased by 25·2% from 2008 to 2016 (1·25, 1·03-1·54). The group with lower educational attainment had a smaller decline in dementia incidence from 2002 to 2008 and a greater increase after 2008. If the upward incidence trend continued, there would be 1·7 million (1·62-1·75) dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, 70% more than previously forecast.

interpretationDementia incidence might no longer be declining in England and Wales. If the upward trend since 2008 continues, along with population ageing, the burden on health and social care will be large.

fundingUK Economic and Social Research Council.

Indexed as

DementiaAgedAgingEnglandFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedWales

Identifiers

PMID37898518
PMCPMC10958989

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.