Machine Learning Algorithms Applied to Predict Autism Spectrum Disorder Based on Gut Microbiome Composition.

The application of machine learning (ML) techniques stands as a reliable method for aiding in the diagnosis of complex diseases. Recent studies have related the composition of the gut microbiota to the presence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but until now, the results have been mostly contradictory. This work proposes using machine learning to study the gut microbiome composition and its role in the early diagnosis of ASD. We applied support vector machines (SVMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and random forest (RF) algorithms to classify subjects as neurotypical (NT) or having ASD, using published data on gut microbiome composition. Naive Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, ensemble learning, logistic regression, linear regression, and decision trees were also trained and validated; however, the ones presented showed the best performance and interpretability. All the ML methods were developed using the SAS Viya software platform. The microbiome's composition was determined using 16S rRNA sequencing technology. The application of ML yielded a classification accuracy as high as 90%, with a sensitivity of 96.97% and specificity reaching 85.29%. In the case of the ANN model, no errors occurred when classifying NT subjects from the first dataset, indicating a significant classification outcome compared to traditional tests and data-based approaches. This approach was repeated with two datasets, one from the USA and the other from China, resulting in similar findings. The main predictors in the obtained models differ between the analyzed datasets. The most important predictors identified from the analyzed datasets are