Can Whole-Body Baseline CT Radiomics Add Information to the Prediction of Best Response, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival of Stage IV Melanoma Patients Receiving First-Line Targeted Therapy: A Retrospective Register Study.

backgroundThe aim of this study was to investigate whether the combination of radiomics and clinical parameters in a machine-learning model offers additive information compared with the use of only clinical parameters in predicting the best response, progression-free survival after six months, as well as overall survival after six and twelve months in patients with stage IV malignant melanoma undergoing first-line targeted therapy.

methodsA baseline machine-learning model using clinical variables (demographic parameters and tumor markers) was compared with an extended model using clinical variables and radiomic features of the whole tumor burden, utilizing repeated five-fold cross-validation. Baseline CTs of 91 stage IV malignant melanoma patients, all treated in the same university hospital, were identified in the Central Malignant Melanoma Registry and all metastases were volumetrically segmented (

resultsCompared with the baseline model, the extended radiomics model did not add significantly more information to the best-response prediction (AUC [95% CI] 0.548 (0.188, 0.808) vs. 0.487 (0.139, 0.743)), the prediction of PFS after six months (AUC [95% CI] 0.699 (0.436, 0.958) vs. 0.604 (0.373, 0.867)), or the overall survival prediction after six and twelve months (AUC [95% CI] 0.685 (0.188, 0.967) vs. 0.766 (0.433, 1.000) and AUC [95% CI] 0.554 (0.163, 0.781) vs. 0.616 (0.271, 1.000), respectively).

conclusionsThe results showed no additional value of baseline whole-body CT radiomics for best-response prediction, progression-free survival prediction for six months, or six-month and twelve-month overall survival prediction for stage IV melanoma patients receiving first-line targeted therapy. These results need to be validated in a larger cohort.