ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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19 citing papers in PubMed, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population-level behavioral and structural drivers of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the US.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- App-based epidemic game in a university campus reveals how risk perception and behavioral interventions shape disease transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Review
- Understanding pandemics through molecular gas dynamics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Development of a behavioural modulation strategy for disease control based on network interventions.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Coupled Dynamics of Information-Epidemic Spreading with Resource Allocation and Transmission on Multi-Layer Networks.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Social imitation dynamics of vaccination driven by vaccine effectiveness and beliefs.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Improving policy design and epidemic response using integrated models of economic choice and disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- The effect of COVID-19 vaccination on change in contact and implications for transmission.Epidemics · 2025Article
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Review
- Social dilemma of nonpharmaceutical interventions: Determinants of dynamic compliance and behavioral shifts.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- The evolution of post-infection mortality.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Paradoxes in the coevolution of contagions and institutions.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Human behavior and disease dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
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2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence to an NPI is now the result of individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence within an epidemiological model. When the disease is endemic, we find that our model has multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence. Surprisingly, for the equilibrium with partial NPI adherence, the number of infections is independent of the transmission rate. Therefore, in that regime, a change in the rate of pathogen transmission, e.g., due to another (mandated) NPI or a new variant, has no effect on endemic infection levels. On the other hand, we show that vaccination successfully decreases endemic infection levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces the number of susceptibles at equilibrium when there is partial adherence. From a game-theoretic perspective, we find that highly effective NPIs lead at most to partial adherence. As this effectiveness decreases, partially effective NPIs initially lead to increases in population-level adherence, especially if the risk is high enough. However, a completely ineffective NPI results in no adherence. Furthermore, we identify parameter regions where the individual incentives may not align with those of society as a whole. Overall, our findings illustrate complexities that can arise due to behavioral-epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures to avoid more pessimistic population-level outcomes.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.