ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2023
Simulation Study of Surveillance Strategies for Faster Detection of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Earlier global detection of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants gives governments more time to respond. However, few countries can implement timely national surveillance, resulting in gaps in monitoring. The United Kingdom implemented large-scale community and hospital surveillance, but experience suggests it might be faster to detect new variants through testing England arrivals for surveillance. We developed simulations of emergence and importation of novel variants with a range of infection hospitalization rates to the United Kingdom. We compared time taken to detect the variant though testing arrivals at England borders, hospital admissions, and the general community. We found that sampling 10%-50% of arrivals at England borders could confer a speed advantage of 3.5-6 weeks over existing community surveillance and 1.5-5 weeks (depending on infection hospitalization rates) over hospital testing. Directing limited global capacity for surveillance to highly connected ports could speed up global detection of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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