ArticleCell2023
Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Cell, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 50 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
50 citing papers in PubMed, 85 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dose-dependent effects of recombinant spike protein-based vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics and the emergence of variants in hamster models.The Journal of general virology · 2026Article
- JN.1-adapted vaccination is associated with readjustment of ancestral memory B cells toward neutralization within the JN.1 antigenic space.Nature communications · 2026Article
- A deep mutational scanning-informed protein language model predicts SARS-CoV-2 evolution dynamics with spatiotemporal resolution.Nature microbiology · 2026Article
- Comparing the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Resistance Evolving Across Regions in the Americas with Differing Approaches to Public Health.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Global disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage associated with trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Senegal (2020-2024): Variant Turnover, Omicron Introductions, and Interregional Spread.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- AI-driven big data analysis and predictive modeling of infectious disease immunity: from correlates to causal, multiscale understanding.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- Stringent selection drives convergence toward omicron-like SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding motifs.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Healthcare Development, Relaxed Natural Selection, and COVID-19 Infection Rates: An Evolutionary Population-Level Analysis.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Mutations to the HCoV-229E spike have counterbalancing effects on serum antibody neutralization and receptor binding.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Strengthening Respiratory Virus Surveillance in Sub-Saharan Africa: Integrated Epidemiological and Genomic Monitoring in Côte d'Ivoire.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- SIMPLICITY is an agent-based, multi-scale mathematical model to study SARS-CoV-2 intra- and between-host evolution.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Reinfection-Driven Accumulation of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies: A 36-Month Longitudinal Study in Austrian Blood Donors.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Clonal interference and changing selective pressures shape the escape of SARS-CoV-2 from hundreds of antibodies.Virus evolution · 2026Article
- Pathogenicity, virological features, and immune evasion of SARS-CoV-2 JN.1-derived variants including JN.1.7, KP.2, KP.3, and KP.3.1.1.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Article
- Role of vaccines in competitive displacement between SARS-CoV-2 viruses as revealed by the modeling of surveillance data.Infection · 2025Article
- Spike mutations that affect the function and antigenicity of recent KP.3.1.1-like SARS-CoV-2 variants.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- Whole-genome sequence characterization of respiratory syncytial virus in the Johns Hopkins Health System during the 2024-2025 respiratory season.Microbiology spectrum · 2025Article
- Constrained Evolutionary Funnels Shape Viral Immune Escape.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pressure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.