Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37874919›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society2023

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country.

Y T Eunice Lo, Dann M Mitchell, Jonathan R Buzan, Jakob Zscheischler, Rochelle Schneider, Malcolm N Mistry, Jan Kyselý, Éric Lavigne, Susana Pereira da Silva, Dominic Royé and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Heat Stress and Placental Abruption: A Space-Time Stratified Case-Crossover Study.BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology · 2026
    Article
  5. Reclassifying lethal heat.Nature communications · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Ten new insights in climate science 2024.One earth (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025
    Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country.International journal of climatology : a journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Y T Eunice LoSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7389-7272
Dann M MitchellSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0117-3486
Jonathan R BuzanClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Jakob ZscheischlerDepartment of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
Rochelle SchneiderΦ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy.
Malcolm N MistryDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Jan KyselýInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
Éric LavigneSchool of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
Susana Pereira da SilvaDepartment of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal.
Dominic RoyéClimate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain.
Aleš UrbanInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4608-3553
Ben ArmstrongDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network
Antonio GasparriniDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Ana M Vicedo-CabreraOeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

Indexed as

climate and healthdry heatheat-related mortalityheat stresshumid heat

Identifiers

PMID37874919
PMCPMC10410159

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.