ArticleDiseases (Basel, Switzerland)2023
Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination.
Article in Diseases (Basel, Switzerland), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of COVID-19 vaccinations in India: a state-wise analysis.BMC public health · 2025Article
- A data-driven approach to study temporal characteristics of COVID-19 infection and death Time Series for twelve countries across six continents.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Assessing the impact of vaccines on COVID-19 efficacy in survival rates: a survival analysis approach for clinical decision support.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveThe objective of this article is to develop a robust method for forecasting the transition from endemic to epidemic phases in contagious diseases using COVID-19 as a case study.
methodsSeven indicators are proposed for detecting the endemic/epidemic transition: variation coefficient, entropy, dominant/subdominant spectral ratio, skewness, kurtosis, dispersion index and normality index. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) offers a score built from the seven proposed indicators as the first PCA component, and its forecasting performance is estimated from its ability to predict the entrance in the epidemic exponential growth phase.
resultsThis score is applied to the retro-prediction of endemic/epidemic transitions of COVID-19 outbreak in seven various countries for which the first PCA component has a good predicting power.
conclusionThis research offers a valuable tool for early epidemic detection, aiding in effective public health responses.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.