Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37873362›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2024

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Amanda C Perofsky, John Huddleston, Chelsea Hansen, John R Barnes, Thomas Rowe, Xiyan Xu, Rebecca Kondor, David E Wentworth, Nicola Lewis, Lynne Whittaker and 16 more

Open access · greenAbstract readPreprint
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors at 8 institutions in 4 countries.

Amanda C PerofskyFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7341-9193
John HuddlestonVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, United States.
Chelsea HansenFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, United States.
John R BarnesVirology Surveillance and Diagnosis Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.
Thomas RoweVirology Surveillance and Diagnosis Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.
Xiyan XuVirology Surveillance and Diagnosis Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.
Rebecca KondorVirology Surveillance and Diagnosis Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.
David E WentworthVirology Surveillance and Diagnosis Branch, Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), United States.
Nicola LewisWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Lynne WhittakerWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Burcu ErmetalWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Ruth HarveyWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Monica GalianoWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Rodney Stuart DanielsWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
John W McCauleyWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Crick Worldwide Influenza Centre, The Francis Crick Institute, United Kingdom.
Seiichiro FujisakiInfluenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan.
Kazuya NakamuraInfluenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan.
Noriko KishidaInfluenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan.
Shinji WatanabeInfluenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan.
Hideki HasegawaInfluenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan.
Sheena G SullivanWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.
Ian G BarrWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.
Kanta SubbaraoWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.
Florian KrammerCenter for Vaccine Research and Pandemic Preparedness (C-VaRPP), Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, United States.
Trevor BedfordBrotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, United States.
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, United States.
The Francis Crick Institute · GBCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USNational Institute of Infectious Diseases · JPNational Institutes of Health · USThe University of Melbourne · AUFred Hutch Cancer Center · USHoward Hughes Medical Institute · USIcahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai · US

Funding

COLLABORATIVE INFLUENZA VACCINE INNOVATION CENTER: UNIVERSAL INFLUENZA VACCINE RESEARCH75N93019C00051 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI KRAMMER, FLORIAN · 2019 to 2025
$105.4M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00014 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI GARCIA-SASTRE, ADOLFO · 2021 to 2025
$62.6M
Real-time tracking of virus evolution for vaccine strain selection and epidemiological investigationR35GM119774 · NIGMS · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BEDFORD, TREVOR BC · 2016 to 2025
$4.1M
Forecasting influenza evolution on a heterogeneous immune landscapeR01AI165821 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Jesse D Bloom, JOHN HUDDLESTON · 2022 to 2026
$3.0M
High-throughput experiments to guide influenza vaccine strain selectionR01AI127893 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BLOOM, JESSE D · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
Integrative prediction of seasonal influenza evolution by genotype, phenotype, and geographyF31AI140714 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI HUDDLESTON, JOHN · 2019 to 2020
$75k
NIAID NIH HHS 75N93019C00051NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00014NIAID NIH HHS F31 AI140714NIAID NIH HHS HHSN272201400008CNIAID NIH HHS R01 AI127893NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI165821NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119774Wellcome Trust FC001030
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Identifiers

PMID37873362
PMCPMC10593063
OpenAlexW4387298396

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.