SynthesisCMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne2023
Predictors of fatal and nonfatal overdose after prescription of opioids for chronic pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.
Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph
Synthesis in CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Oxygen Saturation Thresholds for Opioid-induced Respiratory Depression: A Systematic Review.The western journal of emergency medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Psychosocial factors associated with overdose subsequent to Illicit Drug use: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.Harm reduction journal · 2024Pooled it
- Recovery Capital and Subsequent Overdose Risk and Addiction Treatment Engagement Among Emergency Department Patients at High Risk of Opioid Overdose.Substance use & misuse · 2025Trial
- A missed opportunity: receipt of medication for opioid use disorder in Southern California acute care settings.Addiction science & clinical practice · 2026Article
- Predicting and differentiating opioid and non-opioid drug poisonings using health records data.Journal of substance use and addiction treatment · 2026Article
- Pharmacists may facilitate opioid tapering before total hip or knee arthroplasty.Annals of joint · 2026Article
- Patient-Reported Characteristics and Care-Seeking among Canadian Adults with Chronic Pain: An Online Cross-Sectional Survey.Canadian journal of pain = Revue canadienne de la douleur · 2026Article
- Risks for Adverse Events by Sex and Age After Prescription Opioid Dose Reduction: A Secondary Analysis Across 8 U.S. Health Systems.American journal of preventive medicine · 2025Observational
- Predicting Fatal Drug Poisoning Among People Living with HIV-HCV Co-Infection.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Contextual factors related to the overlap of the overdose and HIV pandemics and their clinical implications.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Article
- Opioid analgesics for chronic noncancer pain in patients prescribed opioid agonist therapy or with opioid use disorder: A systematic review.Canadian journal of pain = Revue canadienne de la douleur · 2025Review
- The Impact of a Novel Methodological Process for Needling Scars, Fascia, and Muscles in the Management of Myofascial Dysfunction and Chronic Pain in a Population Living With Social and Health Inequities: Quantitative Findings From a Longitudinal Observational Pilot Study.Pain research & management · 2025Observational
- Top Three Healthcare Trends in Orthopaedics Affecting Musculoskeletal Care in the Elderly.Current aging science · 2025Review
- A Pharmacogenomics-Based In Silico Investigation of Opioid Prescribing in Post-operative Spine Pain Management and Personalized Therapy.Cellular and molecular neurobiology · 2024Article
- Correction to "Predictors of fatal and nonfatal overdose after prescription of opioids for chronic pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies".CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
10 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Li WangDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont. wangli1@mcmaster.ca.
Patrick J HongDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Wenjun JiangDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Yasir RehmanDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Brian Y HongDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Rachel J CoubanDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Chunming WangDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Corey J HayesDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
David N JuurlinkDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
Jason W BusseDepartment of Anesthesia (L. Wang, Busse); The Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Pain Research and Care (L. Wang, Rehman, Couban, Busse); Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact (L. Wang, Rehman, Busse), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine (P.J. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Faculty of Health Science (Jiang), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Division of Plastic Surgery, Department of Surgery (B.Y. Hong), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Guangdong Science and Technology Library (C. Wang), Institute of Information, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; Department of Biomedical Informatics (Hayes), College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, Ark.; Center for Mental Healthcare and Outcomes Research (Hayes), Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System, North Little Rock, Ark.; Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (Juurlink); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (Juurlink); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation (Juurlink), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
McMaster University · CA
Funding
The Ohio Valley Node of the Clinical Trials Network (CTN-0153)UG1DA013732 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI · PI T John WINHUSEN · 2015 to 2026
$42.5MImpact of Opioid Dosing Strategies on Pain Scores and Adverse or Unintended Clinical OutcomesR36DA046717 · NIDA · UNIV OF ARKANSAS FOR MED SCIS · PI HAYES, COREY J · 2018 to 2018
$54kHSRD VA IK2 HX003358NIDA NIH HHS R36 DA046717NIDA NIH HHS UG1 DA013732
Abstract
backgroundHigher doses of opioids, mental health comorbidities, co-prescription of sedatives, lower socioeconomic status and a history of opioid overdose have been reported as risk factors for opioid overdose; however, the magnitude of these associations and their credibility are unclear. We sought to identify predictors of fatal and nonfatal overdose from prescription opioids.
methodsWe systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Science up to Oct. 30, 2022, for observational studies that explored predictors of opioid overdose after their prescription for chronic pain. We performed random-effects meta-analyses for all predictors reported by 2 or more studies using odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
resultsTwenty-eight studies (23 963 716 patients) reported the association of 103 predictors with fatal or nonfatal opioid overdose. Moderate- to high-certainty evidence supported large relative associations with history of overdose (OR 5.85, 95% CI 3.78-9.04), higher opioid dose (OR 2.57, 95% CI 2.08-3.18 per 90-mg increment), 3 or more prescribers (OR 4.68, 95% CI 3.57-6.12), 4 or more dispensing pharmacies (OR 4.92, 95% CI 4.35-5.57), prescription of fentanyl (OR 2.80, 95% CI 2.30-3.41), current substance use disorder (OR 2.62, 95% CI 2.09-3.27), any mental health diagnosis (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.73-2.61), depression (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.57-3.14), bipolar disorder (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.77-2.41) or pancreatitis (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.52-2.64), with absolute risks among patients with the predictor ranging from 2-6 per 1000 for fatal overdose and 4-12 per 1000 for nonfatal overdose.
interpretationWe identified 10 predictors that were strongly associated with opioid overdose. Awareness of these predictors may facilitate shared decision-making regarding prescribing opioids for chronic pain and inform harm-reduction strategies SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/vznxj/).
Indexed as
Chronic PainDrug OverdoseOpiate OverdoseAnalgesics, OpioidHumansObservational Studies as TopicPrescriptionsAnalgesics, Opioid
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.