The response of zooplankton network indicators to winter water warming using shallow artificial reservoirs as model case study.

To predict the most likely scenarios, the consequences of the rise in water surface temperature have been studied using various methods. We tested the hypothesis that winter water warming significantly alters the importance and nature of the relationships in zooplankton communities in shallow reservoirs. These relationships were investigated using network graph analysis for three thermal variants: warm winters (WW), moderate winters (MW) and cold winters (CW). The CW network was the most cohesive and was controlled by eutrophic Rotifera and Copepoda, with a corresponding number of positive and negative interspecific relationships. An increase in water temperature in winter led to a decrease in the centrality of MW and WW networks, and an increase in the importance of species that communicated with the highest number of species in the subnetworks. The WW network was the least cohesive, controlled by psammophilous and phytophilous rotifers, and littoral cladocerans. Adult copepods were not identified in the network and the importance of antagonistic relationships decreased, indicating that the WW network structure was weak and unstable. This study can serve as a model for generalisations of zooplankton community response to the disappearance of long winter periods of low temperatures, as predicted in global climate change projections.