Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37864271›Full record

SynthesisEuropean journal of medical research2023

The predictive value of machine learning for mortality risk in patients with acute coronary syndromes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Xiaoxiao Zhang, Xi Wang, Luxin Xu, Jia Liu, Peng Ren, Huanlin Wu

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in European journal of medical research, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Xiaoxiao ZhangDongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Xi WangDongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Luxin XuDongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Jia LiuDongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China.
Peng RenSchool of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China.
Huanlin WuDongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China. wuhuanlinboshi@aliyun.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAcute coronary syndromes (ACS) are the leading cause of global death. Optimizing mortality risk prediction and early identification of high-risk patients is essential for developing targeted prevention strategies. Many researchers have built machine learning (ML) models to predict the mortality risk in ACS patients. Our meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the predictive value of various ML models in predicting death in ACS patients at different times.

methodsPubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched systematically from database establishment to March 12, 2022 for studies developing or validating at least one ML predictive model for death in ACS patients. We used PROBAST to assess the risk of bias in the reported predictive models and a random-effects model to assess the pooled C-index and accuracy of these models.

resultsFifty papers were included, involving 216 ML prediction models, 119 of which were externally validated. The combined C-index of the ML models in the validation cohort predicting the in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, 3- or 6-month mortality, and 1 year or above mortality in ACS patients were 0.8633 (95% CI 0.8467-0.8802), 0.8296 (95% CI 0.8134-0.8462), 0.8205 (95% CI 0.7881-0.8541), and 0.8197 (95% CI 0.8042-0.8354), respectively, with the corresponding combined accuracy of 0.8569 (95% CI 0.8411-0.8715), 0.8282 (95% CI 0.7922-0.8591), 0.7303 (95% CI 0.7184-0.7418), and 0.7837 (95% CI 0.7455-0.8175), indicating that the ML models were relatively excellent in predicting ACS mortality at different times. Furthermore, common predictors of death in ML models included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, Killip class, heart rate, diastolic blood pressure, blood glucose, and hemoglobin.

conclusionsThe ML models had excellent predictive power for mortality in ACS, and the methodologies may need to be addressed before they can be used in clinical practice.

Indexed as

Acute Coronary SyndromeBlood GlucoseHospital MortalityHumansMachine LearningRisk AssessmentBlood GlucoseAcute coronary syndromesMachine learningMeta-analysisMortalityPredictive modelsSystematic review

Identifiers

PMID37864271
PMCPMC10588162

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.