Ethiopia's wheat production pathways to self-sufficiency through land area expansion, irrigation advance, and yield gap closure.

Ethiopia is the second largest wheat producer in Africa. Though wheat production has been increasing steadily in the past decades, the demand for the crop outstripped domestic supply and forced the country to cover about 30 % of the deficit through commercial imports and food aid. The utilization of wheat is rising at 9 % annually while the production is increasing at 7.8 %, showing a continued widening between consumption and production. With a growing demand due to bourgeoning population, increase in income, and preference toward wheat-based products, the country has a long journey to achieve wheat self-sufficiency and save the scarce foreign currency reserve spent on import. The government of Ethiopia is committed to self-sufficiency through initiatives such as wheat area expansion, irrigation development and yield gap closure. In this review, we explored wheat production trends and the roles of the recent government initiatives toward wheat self-sufficiency. The review indicated that wheat production and productivity have increased in Ethiopia, but the wheat self-sufficiency of the country has declined from 99 % in the 1960s to 70 % at present. The future land area expansion in traditionally wheat-producing areas is limited, and wheat land suitability and yield potential is likely to reduce under climate change. Thus, the options to transform the wheat sector while reducing greenhouse gas emissions is through yield gap closure through intensification on existing cropland and judicious temporal and spatial expansion of irrigated wheat areas. The yield gap closure requires higher and more efficient input supply and utilization, investments in modern technologies, as well as supportive agricultural policies. To improve the productivity of small landholder farmers and increase intensity of production through irrigation investment on irrigation structures and facilities is required. Finally, we recommend further studies on yield gap analysis, the role of government initiatives, and wheat land suitability under current and future climate change scenarios at the local level.