Association of Time to Definitive Hemostasis With Mortality in Patients With Solid Organ Injuries.

Introduction The Golden Hour is a term used in the trauma setting to refer to the first 60 minutes after injury. Traditionally, definitive care within this period was believed to dramatically increase a patient's survival. Though the period of 60 minutes is unlikely to represent a point of distinct inflection in survival, the effect of time to definitive care on survival remains incompletely understood. This study aims to measure the association of time to definitive hemostasis with mortality in patients with solid organ injuries as well as the effect of survival bias and a form of selection bias known as indication by severity on the relationship between time to treatment and survival. Methodology This is a retrospective cohort study using data obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) from the years 2017 through 2019 selecting patients treated for blunt liver, spleen, or kidney injury who required angioembolization or surgical hemostasis within six hours. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyze time to death. The association of probability of death with time was examined with a multivariate logistic regression initially treating the relationship as linear and subsequently transforming time to hemostasis with restricted cubic splines to model a non-linear association with the outcome. To model survival and indication by severity bias, we created a computer-generated data set and used LOESS regressions to display curves of the simulated data. Results The multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis shows a coefficient of negative 0.004 for minutes to hemostasis with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.9959 showing the adjusted hazard of death slightly diminishes with each increasing minute to hemostasis. The likelihood ratio chi-square difference between the model with time to hemostasis included as a linear term versus the model with the restricted cubic spline transformation is 97.46 (p<0.0001) showing the model with restricted cubic splines is a better fit for the data. The computer-generated data simulating treatment of solid organ injury with no programmed bias displays an almost linear association of mortality with increased treatment delay. When indications by severity bias and survival bias are introduced, the risk of death decreases with time to hemostasis as in the real-world data. Conclusion Decreasing mortality with increasing delay to hemostasis in trauma patients with solid organ injury is likely due to confounding due to indication by severity and survival bias. After taking these biases into account, the association of delayed hemostasis with better survival is not likely due to the benefit of delay but rather the delay sorts patients by severity of injury with those more likely to die being treated first. These biases are extremely difficult to eliminate which limits the ability to measure the true effect of delay with retrospective data. The findings may however be of value as a predictive model to anticipate the acuity of a patient after an interval of unavoidable delay such as with a long transfer time.