Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37848057›Full record

ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2023

Lineage replacement and evolution captured by 3 years of the United Kingdom Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

Katrina A Lythgoe, Tanya Golubchik, Matthew Hall, Thomas House, Roberto Cahuantzi, George MacIntyre-Cockett, Helen Fryer, Laura Thomson, Anel Nurtay, Mahan Ghafani and 23 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 28 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  3. Observational
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  10. A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Unsupervised identification of significant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 through scalable machine learning methods.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  13. Article
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  15. Article
  16. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

33 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Katrina A LythgoeBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7089-7680
Tanya GolubchikBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Matthew HallBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Thomas HouseDepartment of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5835-8062
Roberto CahuantziDepartment of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.
George MacIntyre-CockettBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Helen FryerBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Laura ThomsonBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Anel NurtayBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Mahan GhafaniBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
David BuckWellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.
Angie GreenWellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.
Amy TrebesWellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3715-9109
Paolo PiazzaWellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.
Lorne J LonieWellcome Centre for Human Genetics, Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK.
Ruth StudleyOffice for National Statistics, Newport, UK.
Emma RourkeOffice for National Statistics, Newport, UK.
Darren SmithThe Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Nothumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Matthew BashtonThe Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Nothumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6847-1525
Andrew NelsonThe Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Nothumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Matthew CrownThe Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Nothumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Clare McCannDepartment of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Gregory R YoungThe Hub for Biotechnology in the Built Environment, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Nothumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Rui Andre Nunes Dos SantosDepartment of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Zack RichardsDepartment of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Adnan TariqDepartment of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK.
Wellcome Sanger Institute COVID-19 Surveillance Team
COVID-19 Infection Survey Group, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
Christophe FraserBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Ian DiamondOffice for National Statistics, Newport, UK.
Jeff BarrettWellcome Sanger Institute, Cambridge CB10 1SA, UK.
Ann Sarah WalkerNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
David BonsallBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Centre for Human Genetics · GBUniversity of Oxford · GBNorthumbria University · GBOffice for National Statistics · GBUniversity of Manchester · GBNational Institute for Health Research · GBThe University of Sydney · AU

Funding

Department of Health MC_PC_19027Department of Health NIHR200915Medical Research Council MC_PC_19027Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 107652/Z/15/ZWellcome Trust 203141/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (ONS-CIS) is the largest surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the community, and collected data on the United Kingdom (UK) epidemic from April 2020 until March 2023 before being paused. Here, we report on the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 determined by analysing the sequenced samples collected by the ONS-CIS during this period. We observed a series of sweeps or partial sweeps, with each sweeping lineage having a distinct growth advantage compared to their predecessors, although this was also accompanied by a gradual fall in average viral burdens from June 2021 to March 2023. The sweeps also generated an alternating pattern in which most samples had either S-gene target failure (SGTF) or non-SGTF over time. Evolution was characterized by steadily increasing divergence and diversity within lineages, but with step increases in divergence associated with each sweeping major lineage. This led to a faster overall rate of evolution when measured at the between-lineage level compared to within lineages, and fluctuating levels of diversity. These observations highlight the value of viral sequencing integrated into community surveillance studies to monitor the viral epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2, and potentially other pathogens.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsHumansSARS-CoV-2Surveys and QuestionnairesUnited KingdomCoronavirus (COVID-19) Infection SurveyevolutionSARS-CoV-2United Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID37848057
PMCPMC10581763
OpenAlexW4387697737

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.