Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37845201›Full record

ArticleNature communications2023

Assessing the global risk of typhoid outbreaks caused by extensively drug resistant Salmonella Typhi.

Joseph Walker, Chrispin Chaguza, Nathan D Grubaugh, Megan Carey, Stephen Baker, Kamran Khan, Isaac I Bogoch, Virginia E Pitzer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Emerging point-of-care technologies for bacterial pathogen detection.Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B · 2026
    Review
  4. Synergistic Eradication of Drug-ResistantFoods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. ConfrontingInfection and drug resistance · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Whole-Genome Sequencing Analysis of Drug-ResistantPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Azithromycin resistance inJAC-antimicrobial resistance · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. SHASI-ML: a machine learning-based approach for immunogenicity prediction inFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Joseph WalkerDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. jo.walker@yale.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6130-8189
Chrispin ChaguzaDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Nathan D GrubaughDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2031-1933
Megan CareyCambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7797-9080
Stephen BakerCambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID), University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
Kamran KhanDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Isaac I BogochDepartment of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Virginia E PitzerDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1015-2289

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Since its emergence in 2016, extensively drug resistant (XDR) Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) has become the dominant cause of typhoid fever in Pakistan. The establishment of sustained XDR S. Typhi transmission in other countries represents a major public health threat. We show that the annual volume of air travel from Pakistan strongly discriminates between countries that have and have not imported XDR S. Typhi in the past, and identify a significant association between air travel volume and the rate of between-country movement of the H58 haplotype of S. Typhi from fitted phylogeographic models. Applying these insights, we analyze flight itinerary data cross-referenced with model-based estimates of typhoid fever incidence to identify the countries at highest risk of importation and sustained onward transmission of XDR S. Typhi. Future outbreaks of XDR typhoid are most likely to occur in countries that can support efficient local S. Typhi transmission and have strong travel links to regions with ongoing XDR typhoid outbreaks (currently Pakistan). Public health activities to track and mitigate the spread of XDR S. Typhi should be prioritized in these countries.

Indexed as

Air TravelTyphoid FeverAnti-Bacterial AgentsDisease OutbreaksHumansSalmonella typhiAnti-Bacterial Agents

Identifiers

PMID37845201
PMCPMC10579367

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.