ArticleBMJ open2023
Predictors and prognosis of population-based subjective cognitive decline: longitudinal evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS).
Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Metacognitive performance in Functional Cognitive Disorder (FCD): A meta-analysis.Acta neurologica Belgica · 2026Pooled it
- Parkinson's disease-subjective cognitive decline and health-related quality of life.Journal of neural transmission (Vienna, Austria : 1996) · 2026Article
- Functional ability in cognitive complaints: The role of neuropsychiatric and cognitive factors in community-dwelling older adults.Alzheimer's & dementia. Behavior & socioeconomics of aging · 2025Article
- Subjective cognitive decline-a neglected but preventable public health concern: development and validation of a risk prediction model for subjective cognitive decline in older adults: a cross-sectional survey study from Anhui Province in eastern China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
objectivesTo understand associations between the subjective experience of cognitive decline and objective cognition. This subjective experience is often conceptualised as an early step towards neurodegeneration, but this has not been scrutinised at the population level. An alternative explanation is poor meta-cognition, the extreme of which is seen in functional cognitive disorder (FCD).
designProspective cohort (Caerphilly Prospective Study).
settingPopulation-based, South Wales, UK.
participantsThis men-only study began in 1979; 1225 men participated at an average age of 73 in 2002-2004, including assessments of simple subjective cognitive decline (sSCD, defined as a subjective report of worsening memory or concentration). Dementia outcomes were followed up to 2012-2014. Data on non-completers was additionally obtained from death certificates and local health records. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was incident dementia over 10 years. Secondary outcome measures included prospective change in objective cognition and cross-sectional cognitive internal inconsistency (the existence of a cognitive ability at some times, and its absence at other times, with no intervening explanatory factors except for focus of attention).
resultssSCD was common (30%) and only weakly associated with prior objective cognitive decline (sensitivity 36% (95% CI 30 to 42) and specificity 72% (95% CI 68 to 75)). Independent predictors of sSCD were older age, poor sleep quality and higher trait anxiety. Those with sSCD did not have excess cognitive internal inconsistency, but results suggested a mild attentional deficit. sSCD did not predict objective cognitive change (linear regression coefficient -0.01 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.15)) nor dementia (odds ratio 1.35 (0.61 to 2.99)) 10 years later.
conclusionssSCD is weakly associated with prior objective cognitive decline and does not predict future cognition. Prior sleep difficulties and anxiety were the most robust predictors of sSCD. sSCD in the absence of objective decline appears to be a highly prevalent example of poor meta-cognition (ie, poor self-awareness of cognitive performance), which could be a driver for later FCD.
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