Trends in deaths following drug use in England before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Aim: This research aimed to describe how the characteristics of deaths following drug use changed during the COVID-19 pandemic in England, and how this can inform future strategy to support the health and social care of people who use drugs in future emergency scenarios. Method: All deaths reported to the National Programme on Substance Abuse Deaths which occurred between January 2018 and December 2021 inclusive were extracted for analysis. Exponential smoothing models were constructed to determine any differences between forecasted vs. actual trends. Key results: Following the first lockdown period in England there were significant increases in the proportion of people who died at home beyond the 95% confidence bounds of the exponential smoothing model and concurrent decreases in the proportion of people who died in hospital. Whilst the overall proportion of deaths attributable to opioids did not significantly deviate from the forecasted trend, there were significant increases in methadone-related deaths and decreases in heroin/morphine-related death beyond the 95% confidence bounds. The proportion of deaths concluded as suicide increased, as did those implicating antidepressant use. There were no changes in the proportion of deaths following use of other drug classes, alcohol use in combination with psychoactive drugs, or on decedent demographics (gender, age, and drug user status). A small number of deaths due to drug use had COVID-19 infection itself listed as a cause of death ( Conclusion: For people who use drugs, the impact of the restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic was greater than that of infection from the virus itself. The health and social care strategy for these people needs to be pre-emptively adapted to mitigate against the specific risk factors for fatal drug overdose associated with future emergency scenarios.