ArticleJournal of pain and symptom management2024
The "Surprise Question" for Prognostication in People With Parkinson's Disease and Related Disorders.
Article in Journal of pain and symptom management, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Early thinking palliative care for people with Parkinson's disease: A thematic synthesis based on a systematic mixed-methods review.Journal of Parkinson's disease · 2025Pooled it
- The Surprise Question and clinician-predicted prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ supportive & palliative care · 2024Pooled it
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
contextParkinson's disease and related disorders (PDRD) are fatal neurodegenerative disorders characterized by a fluctuating course that can complicate prognostication. The "surprise question" (SQ: "Would you be surprised if your patient died in the next year?") has been used to identify patients with limited prognosis but has not been assessed in PDRD.
objectivesTo determine the validity of the SQ in predicting 12-month mortality in PDRD.
methodsData was analyzed from 301 patients and 34 community-based neurologists who were participating in a clinical trial of outpatient palliative care for patients with PDRD. Clinicians answered the SQ for each patient at baseline. Descriptive statistics at baseline, chi-square tests of independence, 2 × 2 and 2 × 3 cross tables were used. Survival analysis compared SQ responses using Kaplan-Meier curves. Risk estimate analyses identified patient characteristics associated with clinicians' responses.
resultsMortality was 10.3% (N = 31) at 1 year. The sensitivity and specificity of the SQ was 80.7% and 58.9%, respectively with AUC = 0.70, positive predictive value of 18.4% and negative predictive value of 96.4%. Older age, atypical parkinsonism, and dementia were associated with responding "no" to the SQ.
conclusionThe SQ is sensitive to 12-month mortality in PDRD, with a high negative predictive value. The SQ may be useful for identifying patients less likely to die within a year and may be useful for identifying patients with palliative care needs outside of end-of-life care. This latter use may assist in mobilizing early and timely referral to specialist palliative care.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.