ArticleCommunications medicine2023
Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries.
Article in Communications medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- An age-structured mathematical model to assess the combined effects of vaccine and non-vaccine interventions on malaria transmission and burden.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Measuring vaccine effects on antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance in low and middle-income countries: A scoping review of methodological approaches, data sources, metrics, and limitations.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Estimating the impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in Benin: A mathematical modelling study.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Inner-mitochondrial membrane protein PfMPV17 is linked to P. falciparum in vitro resistance to the indoloquinolizidine alkaloid alstonine.The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy · 2025Article
- Mapping the role of vaccines in combating AMR in the WHO African region: a scoping review and implications for research and policy.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Impact of Control Interventions on Malaria Incidence in the General Population of Mali.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- The impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine on uncomplicated malaria: evidence from the phase IV study districts, Upper East Region, Ghana, 2020-2022.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Malaria vaccine rollout begins in Africa: the need to strengthen regulatory and safety surveillance systems in Africa.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Leveraging malaria vaccines and mRNA technology to tackle the global inequity in pharmaceutical research and production towards disease elimination.Malaria journal · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections.
methodsA compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled.
resultsWhen VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.6 (UI 0.5-0.9) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE begins at 80% and drops 20 percentage points each year, 313.9 (UI 249.8-406.6) cases per 1000, 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.3) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.2) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE remains 40% for 10 years, 384.7 (UI 311.7-496.5) cases per 1000, 1.0 (0.7-1.6) resistant cases per 1000, and 1.1 (UI 0.8-1.5) deaths per 1000 are averted. Assuming an effective vaccine and an increase in current levels of drug resistance to 80% by 2030, 10.4 (UI 7.3-15.8) resistant cases per 1000 children are averted.
conclusionsWidespread deployment of a malaria vaccine could substantially reduce health burden in Africa. Maintaining VE longer may be more impactful than a higher initial VE that falls rapidly.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.