ArticleScientific reports2023
Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Predicting the seasonal distribution of fall armyworm in North America using species distribution models.Pest management science · 2026Article
- Projecting the global spread of xylella fastidiosa under climate change using maxent modeling.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Host Diet and Species Interact to Shape the Bacterial and Fungal Microbiome in the Regurgitant of Four Spodoptera Species.Microbial ecology · 2025Article
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- Divergent Selection Promotes Intraspecific Genomic Differentiation inEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Global Potential Geographic Distribution of Anthonomus eugenii Under Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis Based on an Ensemble Modeling Approach.Neotropical entomology · 2025Article
- Chemical composition ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Prediction of the Future Evolution Trends ofBiology · 2024Article
- Forecasting the Expansion ofInsects · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S. littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account.
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