Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37824611›Full record

ArticleScience advances2023

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use.

Joseph Millard, Charlotte L Outhwaite, Silvia Ceaușu, Luísa G Carvalheiro, Felipe Deodato da Silva E Silva, Lynn V Dicks, Jeff Ollerton, Tim Newbold

Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
28.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Biodiversity conservation requires integration of species-centric and process-based strategies.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  5. Evolutionary implications of a deep-time perspective on insect pollination.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Potential Regional Pollination Services ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

Joseph MillardDepartment of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3025-3565
Charlotte L OuthwaiteCentre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9997-6780
Silvia CeaușuCentre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Luísa G CarvalheiroDepartment of Ecology, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74690-900, Brazil.
Felipe Deodato da Silva E SilvaFederal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso (IFMT)-Campus Barra do Garças, Barra do Garças, MT 78600-000, Brazil.
Lynn V DicksDepartment of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
Jeff OllertonFaculty of Arts, Science and Technology, University of Northampton, University Drive, Northampton, NN1 5PH UK.
Tim NewboldCentre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
University College London · GBInstituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia de Mato Grosso · BRNatural History Museum · GBUniversity of Cambridge · GBUniversity of Lisbon · PTUniversity of Northampton · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeCrops, AgriculturalAgricultureAnimalsBiodiversityEcosystemHumansInsectaPollination

Identifiers

PMID37824611
PMCPMC10569713
OpenAlexW4387568784

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.