ArticleScience bulletin2023
Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of developing cancer in 2020.
Article in Science bulletin, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 48 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
48 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 72 citations in OpenAlex.
- Life Course Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Risk of Cancer in Adulthood: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2026Pooled it
- Bibliometric and visual analysis of global crc circular RNA research 2015-2023.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Pooled it
- Lifetime risk of respiratory system cancers across 185 countries: Global variation, socioeconomic inequalities, and ecological associations with air pollution.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Global landscape and temporal trends in lifetime risk of colorectal cancer in 185 countries: a population-based study.Cancer biology & medicine · 2026Article
- Global patterns, temporal trends and socioeconomic inequalities in the burden of breast cancer: a population-based study across 185 countries.Cancer biology & medicine · 2026Article
- National and Regional Lifetime Risk of Developing and Dying from Lung Cancer - China, 2023.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Comparative Cancer Genetics and Veterinary Therapeutics in Dogs and Cats: A Species-Aware Framework for Comparative Oncology.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Global burden and trends of breast cancer: GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates of incidence and mortality in 185 countries.Chinese medical journal · 2026Article
- On the topical issue of assisted dying: the insurmountable challenges of human existence, and the right to exit.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Baseline knowledge, attitudes and perceptions on the oncology profession among final-year medical students in Kenya: a cross-sectional study.Ecancermedicalscience · 2026Article
- Global variations, temporal trends, and socioeconomic inequalities in the burden of malignant brain and central nervous system tumors: a population-based systematic analysis of GLOBOCAN 2024.Military Medical Research · 2026Article
- Article
- Biomaterials Based on Bacteria for Cancer Clinical Therapy.Biomaterials research · 2026Review
- Lifetime Probability of Developing Migraine: A Novel Epidemiological Perspective Based on Global Burden of Disease Data.Pain research & management · 2026Article
- Global disparities in lifetime risk of lung cancer: links to socioeconomic development, smoking, and fine particulate matter from GLOBOCAN 2022.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Global Patterns and Trends in Lifetime Risks of Developing and Dying from Cancer, 1990-2021.Health data science · 2026Article
- The Need for a Systems Biology Approach in Cancer Explained.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
- The Impact of an Educational Project on Cancer-Related Knowledge and Awareness Among High School Students.Journal of cancer education : the official journal of the American Association for Cancer Education · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The lifetime risk of cancer is a measure of the cumulative risk of cancer over a specific age range and has a clear, intuitive appeal. However, comparative assessments of cancer-specific risk across populations are limited. We used the adjusted for multiple primaries method to estimate the lifetime risk of cancer from the obtained data from GLOBOCAN for 185 countries/regions for the year 2020, alongside all-cause mortality and population data from the United Nations. The estimated global lifetime risk of cancer from birth to death was 25.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.08%-25.11%) in 2020; the risk was 26.27% (95% CI: 26.24%-26.30%) in men and 23.96% (95% CI: 23.93%-23.98%) in women. Significant differences were observed in the risks between countries/regions within world areas and by the human development level. The lifetime risk of cancer was 38.48%, 25.38%, 11.36%, and 10.34% in countries/regions with very high, high, medium, and low Human Development Index, respectively. Globally, prostate and breast cancers were associated with the greatest lifetime risks among men and women (4.65% and 5.90%, respectively). The lifetime risk of cancer decreased with age, with a remaining risk of 12.61% (95% CI: 12.60%-12.63%) from the age of 70 years. The lifetime risk from birth to death translates to approximately one in four persons developing cancer, with men and women having similar risk levels. The identified age-specific variations in cancer risk at the population level can provide crucial information to support targeted cancer prevention and health system planning.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.