ArticleBMJ open2023
Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2030.
Article in BMJ open, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Gendered interpretations of the causes of breast cancer: a structured review of migrant studies.BMC women's health · 2025Pooled it
- Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Trends and forecasts of the prevalence and mortality of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias in China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Cervical cancer burden and attributable risk factors across different age and regions from 1990 to 2021 and future burden prediction: results from the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Trends and projections of Hepatitis A incidence in eastern China from 2007 to 2021: an age-period-cohort analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. DESIGN, SETTING, AND
participantsDeath registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants.
methodsAge-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030.
resultsShort-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000).
conclusionsFindings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
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