Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37819139›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of cancer2024

Benefits and harms of prostate specific antigen testing according to Australian guidelines.

Michael Caruana, Roman Gulati, Ruth Etzioni, Alexandra Barratt, Bruce K Armstrong, Karen Chiam, Visalini Nair-Shalliker, Qingwei Luo, Albert Bang, Paul Grogan and 3 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
0.3field-weighted citation impact, top 35% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Michael CaruanaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-5439-6552
Roman GulatiProgram in Biostatistics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Ruth EtzioniProgram in Biostatistics, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Alexandra BarrattFaculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Bruce K ArmstrongSchool of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Karen ChiamThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Visalini Nair-ShallikerThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-6277-5125
Qingwei LuoThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8902-6869
Albert BangThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Paul GroganThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
David P SmithThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1474-3214
Dianne L O'ConnellThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Karen CanfellThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
The University of Sydney · AUFred Hutch Cancer Center · US

Funding

Modeling Precision Interventions for Prostate Cancer ControlU01CA253915 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI ETZIONI, RUTH D, TSODIKOV, ALEXANDER · 2020 to 2025
$6.5M
Statistical modeling to support population and translational cancer researchR50CA221836 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Roman Gulati · 2017 to 2026
$2.0M
NCI NIH HHS R50 CA221836NCI NIH HHS U01 CA253915
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Guidelines for prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia recommend that men at average risk of prostate cancer who have been informed of the benefits and harms, and who decide to undergo regular testing, should be offered testing every 2 years from 50 to 69 years. This study aimed to estimate the benefits and harms of regular testing in this context. We constructed Policy1-Prostate, a discrete event microsimulation platform of the natural history of prostate cancer and prostate cancer survival, and PSA testing patterns and subsequent management in Australia. The model was calibrated to pre-PSA (before 1985) prostate cancer incidence and mortality and validated against incidence and mortality trends from 1985 to 2011 and international trials. The model predictions were concordant with trials and Australian observed incidence and mortality data from 1985 to 2011. Out of 1000 men who choose to test according to the guidelines, 36 [21-41] men will die from prostate cancer and 126 [119-133] men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, compared with 50 [47-54] and 94 [90-98] men who do not test, respectively. During the 20 years of active PSA testing, 32.3% [25.6%-38.8%] of all PSA-test detected cancers are overdiagnosed cases that is, 30 [21-42] out of 94 [83-107] PSA-test detected cancers. Australian men choosing to test with PSA every two years from 50 to 69 will reduce their risk of ever dying from prostate cancer and incur a risk of overdiagnosis: for every man who avoids dying from prostate cancer, two will be overdiagnosed with prostate cancer between 50 and 69 years of age. Australian men, with health professionals, can use these results to inform decision-making about PSA testing.

Indexed as

Prostate-Specific AntigenProstatic NeoplasmsAustraliaEarly Detection of CancerHumansMaleMass ScreeningProstateProstate-Specific Antigenprostate cancerPSAscreening

Identifiers

PMID37819139
PMCPMC11296206
OpenAlexW4387562849

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.