ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2023
The "double jeopardy" of midlife and old age mortality trends in the United States.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Sicker at all ages? Two decades of changing disease histories and mortality in the United States.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Changing educational attainment as a driver of cohort changes in healthy longevity: a decomposition analysis of US birth cohorts.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Geographical Inequalities in Mortality by Age and Gender in Italy, 2002-2019: Insights from a Spatial Extension of the Lee-Carter Model.Spatial demography · 2026Article
- Age-specific trends in limitations of daily activities in American adults aged 50-84 by race and ethnicity, 2000-2018.PloS one · 2026Article
- Pervasive stagnation: flat and increasing cardiovascular disease mortality rates after 2010 across US states and counties.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- The contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy differences and lifespan disparities in the European Union: a population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2024Article
- Health Economics in a World of Uneconomic Growth.Applied health economics and health policy · 2024Article
- Reply to Timonin and Cooley: Varied effects of counterfactuals in 42 countries underscore value of within-country counterfactual.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Analyzing potential shifts in life expectancy: The role of baseline mortality in addition to relative changes in death rates.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Lancet (London, England) · 2024Article
- Reply to Polizzi and Dowd: Within-country counterfactual reveals importance of retirement age mortality in addition to established concern about working ages.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Working-age mortality is still an important driver of stagnating life expectancy in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades.
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