Investigating the dose-dependency of the midgut escape barrier using a mechanistic model of within-mosquito dengue virus population dynamics.

Flaviviruses are arthropod-borne (arbo)viruses which can emerge rapidly and cause explosive epidemics of severe disease. Some of the most epidemiologically important flaviviruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), are transmitted by Author summary: Aedes mosquitoes are the main vectors of dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), all of which can cause severe disease in humans with dengue alone infecting an estimated 100-400 million people each year. Understanding the processes that affect whether, and at which rate, mosquitoes may transmit such viruses is, hence, paramount. Here, we present a mathematical model of virus dynamics within infected mosquitoes. By combining the model with novel experimental data, we show that the course of infection is sensitive to the initial dose of virus ingested by the mosquito. The data also indicates that mosquitoes which blood feed subsequent to becoming infected may be able to transmit infection earlier, which is reproduced in the model. This is important as many mosquito species feed multiple times during their lifespan and, any reduction in time to dissemination will increase the number of days that a mosquito is infectious and so enhance the risk of transmission. Our study highlights the key and complementary roles played by mathematical models and experimental data for understanding within-mosquito virus dynamics.