Predictive capabilities of baseline radiological findings for early and late disease outcomes within sensitive and multi-drug resistant tuberculosis cases.

Purpose: This study compares performance of Timika Score to standardized, detailed radiologist observations of Chest X rays (CXR) for predicting early infectiousness and subsequent treatment outcome in drug sensitive (DS) or multi-drug resistant (MDR) tuberculosis cases. It seeks improvement in prediction of these clinical events through these additional observations. Method: This is a retrospective study analyzing cases from the NIH/NIAID supported TB Portals database, a large, trans-national, multi-site cohort of primarily drug-resistant tuberculosis patients. We analyzed patient records with sputum microscopy readings, radiologist annotated CXR, and treatment outcome including a matching step on important covariates of age, gender, HIV status, case definition, Body Mass Index (BMI), smoking, drug use, and Timika Score across resistance type for comparison. Results: 2142 patients with tuberculosis infection (374 with poor outcome and 1768 with good treatment outcome) were retrospectively reviewed. Bayesian ANOVA demonstrates radiologist observations did not show greater predictive ability for baseline infectiousness (0.77 and 0.74 probability in DS and MDR respectively); however, the observations provided superior prediction of treatment outcome (0.84 and 0.63 probability in DS and MDR respectively). Estimated lung abnormal area and cavity were identified as important predictors underlying the Timika Score's performance. Conclusions: Timika Score simplifies the usage of baseline CXR for prediction of early infectiousness of the case and shows comparable performance to using detailed, standardized radiologist observations. The score's utility diminishes for treatment outcome prediction and is exceeded by the usage of the detailed observations although prediction performance on treatment outcome decreases especially in MDR TB cases.