ArticleAnnals of Saudi medicine
Climate change and cutaneous leishmaniasis in the province of Ghardaïa in Algeria: A model-based approach to predict disease outbreaks.
Article in Annals of Saudi medicine. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cutaneous leishmaniasis in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of Leishmania species, vectors and reservoirs.Parasites & vectors · 2024Pooled it
- Epidemiological study of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Algeria.Open veterinary journal · 2026Article
- Evidence Gaps and Global Patterns in Leishmaniasis Control: A Scoping Review of Clinical, Diagnostic, and Treatment Strategies.Journal of parasitology research · 2026Review
- Epidemiological patterns of cutaneous leishmaniasis in north-west Pakistan (2022-2023).BMC public health · 2025Article
- Integrating SNP data to reveal the adaptive selection features of goat populations in extreme environments.BMC genomics · 2025Article
- First Comprehensive List of Phlebotomine Sand Fly Species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a Leishmaniasis Focus (Djelfa, Algeria), Including the First Record ofJournal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2024Article
- Human Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in North Africa and Its Threats to Public Health: A Statistical Study Focused on Djelfa (Algeria).Microorganisms · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease prevalent in Algeria since 2000. The disease has significant impacts on affected communities, including morbidity and social stigma.
objectiveInvestigate the association between environmental factors and the incidence of CL in the province of Ghardaïa and assess the predictive capacity of these factors for disease occurrence.
designRetrospective
settingThe study area included both urban and rural communities.
methodsWe analyzed a dataset on CL in the province of Ghardaïa, Algeria, spanning from 2000 to 2020. The dataset included climatic variables such as temperature, average humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using generalized additive models, we examined the relationships and interactions between these variables to predict the emergence of CL in the study area.
main outcome measuresThe identification of the most significant environmental factors associated with the incidence and the predicted incidence rates of CL in the province of Ghardaïa, Algeria. SAMPLE SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS: 252 monthly observations of both climatic and epidemiological variables.
resultsRelative humidity and wind speed were the primary climatic factors influencing the occurrence of CL epidemics in Ghardaïa, Algeria. Additionally, NDVI was a significant environmental factor associated with CL incidence. Surprisingly, temperature did not show a strong effect on CL occurrence, while rainfall was not statistically significant. The final fitted model predictions were highly correlated with real cases.
conclusionThis study provides a better understanding of the long-term trend in how environmental and climatic factors contribute to the emergence of CL. Our results can inform the development of effective early warning systems for preventing the transmission and emergence of vector-borne diseases. LIMITATIONS: Incorporating additional reservoir statistics such as rodent density and a human development index in the region could improve our understanding of disease transmission.
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