Risk assessment and clinical prediction model of planned transfer to the ICU after hip arthroplasty in elderly individuals.

backgroundWith the development of hip arthroplasty technology and rapid rehabilitation theory, the number of hip arthroplasties in elderly individuals is gradually increasing, and their satisfaction with surgery is also gradually improving. However, for elderly individuals, many basic diseases, poor nutritional status, the probability of surgery, anaesthesia and postoperative complications cannot be ignored. How to reduce the incidence of postoperative complications, optimize medical examination for elderly patients, and reasonably allocate medical resources. This study focuses on the construction of a clinical prediction model for planned transfer to the ICU after hip arthroplasty in elderly individuals.

methodsWe retrospectively analysed 325 elderly patients who underwent hip arthroplasty. The general data and preoperative laboratory test results of the patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to screen independent influencing factors. The backwards LR method was used to establish the prediction model. Then, we assessed and verified the degree of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the model. Finally, the prediction model was rendered in the form of a nomogram.

resultsAge, blood glucose, direct bilirubin, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, serum albumin, prothrombin time and haemoglobin were independent influencing factors of planned transfer to the ICU after hip arthroplasty. The area under the curve (AUC) of discrimination and the 500 bootstrap internal validation AUC of this prediction model was 0.793. The calibration curve fluctuated around the ideal curve and had no obvious deviation from the ideal curve. When the prediction probability was 12%-80%, the clinical decision curve was above two extreme lines. The discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability of this prediction model were good. The clinical prediction model was compared with the seven factors in the model for discrimination and clinical use. The discrimination and clinical practicability of this prediction model were superior to those of the internal factors.

conclusionThe prediction model has good clinical prediction ability and clinical practicability. The model is presented in the form of a linear graph, which provides an effective reference for the individual risk assessment of patients.