Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37803177›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2023

The importance of interpreting machine learning models for blood glucose prediction in diabetes: an analysis using SHAP.

Francesco Prendin, Jacopo Pavan, Giacomo Cappon, Simone Del Favero, Giovanni Sparacino, Andrea Facchinetti

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Francesco Prendin *Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Jacopo Pavan *Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Giacomo CapponDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Simone Del FaveroDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Giovanni SparacinoDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Andrea FacchinettiDepartment of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy. facchine@dei.unipd.it.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Machine learning has become a popular tool for learning models of complex dynamics from biomedical data. In Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) management, these models are increasingly been integrated in decision support systems (DSS) to forecast glucose levels and provide preventive therapeutic suggestions, like corrective insulin boluses (CIB), accordingly. Typically, models are chosen based on their prediction accuracy. However, since patient safety is a concern in this application, the algorithm should also be physiologically sound and its outcome should be explainable. This paper aims to discuss the importance of using tools to interpret the output of black-box models in T1D management by presenting a case-of-study on the selection of the best prediction algorithm to integrate in a DSS for CIB suggestion. By retrospectively "replaying" real patient data, we show that two long-short term memory neural networks (LSTM) (named p-LSTM and np-LSTM) with similar prediction accuracy could lead to different therapeutic decisions. An analysis with SHAP-a tool for explaining black-box models' output-unambiguously shows that only p-LSTM learnt the physiological relationship between inputs and glucose prediction, and should therefore be preferred. This is verified by showing that, when embedded in the DSS, only p-LSTM can improve patients' glycemic control.

Indexed as

Blood GlucoseDiabetes Mellitus, Type 1HumansInsulinMachine LearningNeural Networks, ComputerRetrospective StudiesBlood GlucoseInsulin

Identifiers

PMID37803177
PMCPMC10558434

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.