Risk of Short-Term Prostate-Specific Antigen Recurrence and Failure in Patients With Prostate Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: A shorter time interval to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure is associated with worse clinical outcomes; however, specific factors defining this state remain unknown. Objective: To evaluate the factors of a short time interval to PSA failure in order to identify patients for treatment escalation randomized clinical trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial was a secondary analysis of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute 05-043 trial and included 350 patients with nonmetastatic unfavorable risk prostate cancer (PC). Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and radiation therapy (RT) plus docetaxel vs ADT and RT. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative incidence rates curves of PSA failure, defined as PSA nadir plus 2 ng/mL or initiation of salvage therapies, and the Fine and Gray competing risks regression was used to assess the prognostic association between these factors and time to PSA failure. Results: The study included 350 males who primarily had a good performance status (330 [94.3%] with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of 0), median (range) age of 66 (43-86) years, with 167 (46.6%) having Gleason scores of 8 to 10, and 195 (55.2%) presenting with a baseline PSA of more than 10 ng/mL. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (8.0-11.4) years, having a PSA level of 10 ng/mL to 20 ng/mL (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 1.98; 95% CI, 1.28-3.07; P = .002) and a Gleason score of 8 to 10 (sHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.63-3.99; P < .001) were associated with a shorter time to PSA failure, and older age (sHR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.93; P = .002) was associated with reduced risk for PSA failure after adjusting for other baseline clinical factors. The high-risk category, defined by these 3 factors, was associated with a shorter time to PSA failure (sHR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.84-3.93; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial of males with unfavorable risk PC, young age, PSA of 10 ng/mL or more, and a Gleason score of 8 to 10 estimated a shorter time to PSA failure. A subgroup of males at very high-risk for early PSA failure, as defined by our study, may benefit from treatment escalation with androgen receptor signaling inhibitors or cytotoxic chemotherapy and should be the subject of a prospective randomized clinical trial. Trial Registration: NCT00116142.