Is using the Gail model to calculate the risk of breast cancer in the Venezuelan population justified?

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of the Gail model (GM) in women who already have a diagnosis of breast cancer (BC) from the Breast Pathology Service, Hospital Oncology Department of the Venezuelan Social Security Institute (SOH-IVSS) in the period 2004-2014. To compare the accuracy of the GM in women aged above and below 40 years with a diagnosis of BC. Method: Descriptive, retrospective, cross-sectional, 830 records of patients diagnosed with BC were reviewed between 2004 and 2014. Results: The mean age for diagnosis of the disease was 46 ± 13 years; menarche age was 13 years ± 2; age at first birth 22 ± 5 years, with a history of biopsy 32 ± 11, the percentage of relatives with a primary history of BC reported (PHBC) 9.3%. Only 41% of women with a diagnosis of BC reported Gail >1.67 (positive Gail). In the dichotomous logistic regression that related positive Gail with the independent variables, it was observed: greater probability of positive Gail if menarche age <11 years ( Conclusion: There is no conclusive evidence to consider that the GM is applicable to Venezuelan women due to its low precision since it only identified 41% of the patients who had BC as high risk; however, when the factors are analysed separately, we found a higher probability of a positive Gail with statistical significance in EM <11 years, PHBC, previous biopsy and age at first birth 25-29 years; When stratifying by age, we observed that the age at first birth 25-29 years in women aged 40 or less increases the probability of a positive Gail. It is necessary to develop new risk assessment models that are adapted to our female population.