ArticleCancer medicine2023
Development and validation of a network calculator model for safety and efficacy after pancreaticoduodenectomy in the elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 5 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk Evaluation of the NCD Risk Calculator for Open Pancreaticoduodenectomy in Elderly Patients: A Validation Study.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2025Article
- Risk stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula and other complications following pancreatoduodenectomy. How far are we? A scoping review.Langenbeck's archives of surgery · 2025Article
- Predictive value of current nodal staging systems and development of machine learning nomogram for resectable pancreatic head cancer: a population-based study and multicenter validation.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
- Article
- Development and validation of a network calculator model for safety and efficacy after pancreaticoduodenectomy in the elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundBenefiting from increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management, more elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer (PHC) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, individualized predictive models for the safety and efficacy of PD is still lacking. this study aimed to developed three safety- and efficacy-related risk calculators for elderly (> = 65 years) PHC patients.
methodsThis study was designed with two research cohorts, namely, the training cohort and the validation cohort, and comprises four general steps: (1) Risk factors were analyzed for the incidence of postoperative complications, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) in the training cohort (N = 271) using logistic and Cox-regression analysis. (2) Nomograms were then plotted based on the above results. (3) The accuracy of the developed nomogram models was then verified with the validation cohort (N = 134) data using consistency index (C-index) and calibration curves. (4) We then evaluated the efficacy of these nomograms using decision curve analysis (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts, and ultimately constructed three online calculators based on these nomograms.
resultsWe identified ASA, diabetes, smoking, and lymph node invasion as predisposing risk factors for postoperative complications, and the predictive factors that affected both OS and CSS were ASA, diabetes, BMI, CA19-9 level, and tumor diameter. By integrating the above risk factors, we constructed three nomograms on postoperative complication, CSS, and OS. The C-index for complication, CSS, and OS were 0.824, 0.784, and 0.801 in the training cohort and 0.746, 0.718, and 0.708 in the validation cohort. Moreover, the validation curves and DCA demonstrated good calibration and robust compliance in both training and validation cohorts. We then developed three web calculators (https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCD/, https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCSS/, and https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMOS/) to facilitate the use of the nomograms.
conclusionsThe calculators demonstrated promising performance as an tool for predicting the safety and efficacy of PD in elderly PHC patients.
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