A macrophage related signature for predicting prognosis and drug sensitivity in ovarian cancer based on integrative machine learning.

backgroundOvarian cancer ranks the leading cause of gynecologic cancer-related death in the United States and the fifth most common cause of cancer-related mortality among American women. Increasing evidences have highlighted the vital role of macrophages M2/M1 proportion in tumor progression, prognosis and immunotherapy.

methodsWeighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify macrophages related markers. Integrative procedure including 10 machine learning algorithms were performed to develop a prognostic macrophage related signature (MRS) with TCGA, GSE14764, GSE140082 datasets. The role of MRS in tumor microenvironment (TME) and therapy response was evaluated with the data of CIBERSORT, MCPcounter, QUANTISEQ, XCELL, CIBERSORT-ABS, TIMER and EPIC, GSE91061 and IMvigor210 dataset.

resultsThe optimal MRS developed by the combination of CoxBoost and StepCox[forward] algorithm served as an independent risk factor in ovarian cancer. Compared with stage, grade and other established prognostic signatures, the current MRS had a better performance in predicting the overall survival rate of ovarian cancer patients. Low risk score indicated a higher TME score, higher level of immune cells, higher immunophenoscore, higher tumor mutational burden, lower TIDE score and lower IC50 value in ovarian cancer. The survival prediction nomogram had a good potential for clinical application in predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rate of ovarian cancer patients.

conclusionAll in all, the current study constructed a powerful prognostic MRS for ovarian cancer patients using 10 machine learning algorithms. This MRS could predict the prognosis and drug sensitivity in ovarian cancer.