ArticlePNAS nexus2023
Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems.
Article in PNAS nexus, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- PEP725: 15 years of driving European and global phenology science.The New phytologist · 2026Review
- Global destocking of extensive livestock: An overlooked trend with Earth system consequences.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Lagged precipitation effects on plant production across terrestrial biomes.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Characterizing symmetry transitions in systems with dynamic morphology.Mathematical biosciences · 2025Article
- Delayed leaf green-up is associated with fine particulate air pollution in China.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Asymmetric temperature effect on leaf senescence and its control on ecosystem productivity.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
17 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
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