Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37769352›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal2024

The Vienna Prediction Model for identifying patients at low risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism: a prospective cohort study.

Paul A Kyrle, Lisbeth Eischer, Hana Šinkovec, Paul Gressenberger, Thomas Gary, Marianne Brodmann, Georg Heinze, Sabine Eichinger

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
8.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Trial
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. Recurrent venous thromboembolism: association with thrombin generation and d-dimer.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Managing patients with a history of arterial disease and new venous thromboembolism.Hematology. American Society of Hematology. Education Program · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Pregnancy-associated venous thromboembolism: a window into future health.Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis : JTH · 2025
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Review
  19. Risk Scores in Venous Thromboembolism Guidelines of ESC, ACCP, and ASH: An Updated Review.Clinical and applied thrombosis/hemostasis : official journal of the International Academy of Clinical and Applied Thrombosis/Hemostasis
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Paul A KyrleDivision of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-8813-8228
Lisbeth EischerDivision of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090, Austria.
Hana ŠinkovecCenter for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Institute of Clinical Biometrics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090, Austria.
Paul GressenbergerDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz A-8010, Austria.
Thomas GaryDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz A-8010, Austria.
Marianne BrodmannDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz A-8010, Austria.
Georg HeinzeCenter for Medical Statistics, Informatics and Intelligent Systems, Institute of Clinical Biometrics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-1147-8491
Sabine EichingerDivision of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-1135-4878
Medical University of Graz · ATMedical University of Vienna · ATKarl Landsteiner Society · AT

Funding

FWF Austrian Science Fund KLI316
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsPatients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) have a high recurrence risk, and guidelines suggest extended-phase anticoagulation. Many patients never experience recurrence but are exposed to bleeding. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) and to evaluate if the VPM accurately identifies these patients.

methodsIn patients with unprovoked VTE, the VPM was performed 3 weeks after anticoagulation withdrawal. Those with a predicted 1-year recurrence risk of ≤5.5% were prospectively followed. Study endpoint was recurrent VTE over 2 years.

resultsA total of 818 patients received anticoagulation for a median of 3.9 months. 520 patients (65%) had a predicted annual recurrence risk of ≤5.5%. During a median time of 23.9 months, 52 patients had non-fatal recurrence. The recurrence risk was 5.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-7.2] at 1 year and 11.2% (95% CI 8.3-14) at 2 years. Model calibration was adequate after 1 year. The VPM underestimated the recurrence risk of patients with a 2-year recurrence rate of >5%. In a post-hoc analysis, the VPM's baseline hazard was recalibrated. Bootstrap validation confirmed an ideal ratio of observed and expected recurrence events. The recurrence risk was highest in men with proximal deep-vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism and lower in women regardless of the site of incident VTE.

conclusionsIn this prospective evaluation of the performance of the VPM, the 1-year rate of recurrence in patients with unprovoked VTE was 5.2%. Recalibration improved identification of patients at low recurrence risk and stratification into distinct low-risk categories.

Indexed as

Pulmonary EmbolismVenous ThromboembolismAnticoagulantsFemaleHumansMaleProspective StudiesRecurrenceRisk FactorsAnticoagulantsRecurrenceVenous thromboembolismVienna Prediction Model

Identifiers

PMID37769352
PMCPMC10757868
OpenAlexW4387117375

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.