ArticleCancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology2023
Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study.
Article in Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting colorectal cancer screening in Japan: regional and sex disparities threaten national targets.International journal of clinical oncology · 2026Article
- Changes in chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment in gastrointestinal cancer survivors using multidomain assessments: a prospective cohort study.Journal of cancer survivorship : research and practice · 2026Article
- Trends in Female Breast Cancer Incidence among Japanese, Korean, and US Populations: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Prevalence of Cancer Survivors in 2019 Among Patients Diagnosed Between 1975 and 2019: A Population-Based Study in Japan.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Information-Seeking Patterns and Communication Preferences Among Japanese Survivors With Cancer: Cross-Sectional Analysis.JMIR cancer · 2026Article
- Progress and Disparities in Lung Cancer Screening in Japan: A Bayesian Analysis Toward Achieving Health Japan 21 Targets.Cancers · 2026Article
- Validation of the postoperative prognostication tool PREDICT version 2.2 and 3.0 using data from the National cancer center hospital in Japan.Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan) · 2026Article
- Unveiling economic and humanistic burden of hematologic malignancies in Japan with personal health record data.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Global patterns and trends in spontaneous reporting systems: VigiBase, FAERS, VAERS, and JADER.Frontiers in drug safety and regulation · 2026Article
- Burden of Hematological Malignancies in East Asia from 1990 to 2021.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Global trends in sarcopenia and cancer over the past 10 years: a bibliometric analysis.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Progress and inequality in child immunization in 38 African countries, 2000-2030: A spatio-temporal Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Rising Trends in Prostate Cancer Among Asian Men: Global Concerns and Diagnostic Solutions.Cancers · 2025Review
- Poor outcome of older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after progression.Journal of clinical and experimental hematopathology : JCEH · 2025Article
- Association Between Amount of Physical Activity and Clinical Outcomes After Treatment for Cardiovascular Disease in Cancer Survivors.Circulation reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWe provide comprehensive sex-stratified projections of cancer prevalence for 22 cancer sites in Japan from 2020 to 2050.
methodsUsing a scenario-based approach, we projected cancer prevalence by combining projected incidence cases and survival probabilities. Age-specific incidences were forecasted using age-period-cohort models, while survival rates were estimated using a period-analysis approach and multiple parametric survival models. To understand changes in cancer prevalence, decomposition analysis was conducted, assessing the contributions of incidence, survival, and population demographics.
resultsBy 2050, cancer prevalence in Japan is projected to reach 3,665,900 (3,210,200 to 4,201,400) thousand cases, representing a 13.1% increase from 2020. This rise is primarily due to a significant increase in female survivors (+27.6%) compared with a modest increase in males (+0.8%), resulting in females overtaking males in prevalence counts from 2040 onward. In 2050, the projected most prevalent cancer sites in Japan include colorectal, female breast, prostate, lung, and stomach cancers, accounting for 66.4% of all survivors. Among males, the highest absolute increases in prevalence are projected for prostate, lung, and malignant lymphoma cancers, while among females, the highest absolute increases are expected for female breast, colorectal, and corpus uteri cancers.
conclusionsThese findings emphasize the evolving cancer prevalence, influenced by aging populations, changes in cancer incidence rates, and improved survival. Effective prevention, detection, and treatment strategies are crucial to address the growing cancer burden. IMPACT: This study contributes to comprehensive cancer control strategies and ensures sufficient support for cancer survivors in Japan.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.