SynthesisUnited European gastroenterology journal2023
Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.
Synthesis in United European gastroenterology journal, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06508502 (Pancreatitis - Microbiome as Predictor of Severity II), which is not on this map. Cited by 46 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Pancreatitis - Microbiome as Predictor of Severity II
Who cites it
46 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic Review of Role of Oxidative Stress and Clinical Implications in Acute Pancreatitis.World journal of surgery · 2026Pooled it
- AEG-AESPANC-OPGE-SIED-SPG Ibero-Latin American Guidelines on Acute Pancreatitis (iLATAM-AP).United European gastroenterology journal · 2026Guideline
- Pooled it
- A systematic review of machine learning-based prognostic models for acute pancreatitis: Towards improving methods and reporting quality.PLoS medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment.United European gastroenterology journal · 2023Pooled it
- Incremental Prognostic Value of the Admission Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index Beyond BISAP for Early Risk Stratification of Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- High-Dimensional Immune Profiling Identifies Circulating NKT-Like Cells Associated With Severity Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis at Disease Onset.Immunology · 2026Article
- Deep learning-based detection of acute pancreatitis on abdominal contrast-enhanced CT.European radiology experimental · 2026Article
- Early prediction of sepsis in the ICU: a comparative analysis of multiple machine-learning algorithms using the MIMIC-III database.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- Explainable Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Surgical Necessity in Gastrointestinal Emergencies: A Multimodal Diagnostic Study.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- New-onset persistent organ failure predicts adverse outcomes in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.World journal of gastroenterology · 2026Article
- Prognostic analysis of acute pancreatitis due to different etiologies and establishment and validation of an early prediction model.Lipids in health and disease · 2026Article
- Development of a machine learning-based early prediction model for disease severity in acute pancreatitis.European journal of medical research · 2026Article
- Association of albumin trajectories and cumulative exposure with in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Article
- An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Predicting in-Hospital Progression in Initially Mild Hypertriglyceridemia-Induced Acute Pancreatitis Using Clinical and Non-Contrast CT Features.International journal of general medicine · 2026Article
- C-reactive protein-triglyceride-glucose index predicts acute pancreatitis severity: a retrospective cross-sectional study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Early prognostic value of the lactate-to-albumin ratio in severe acute pancreatitis with acute respiratory distress syndrome.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
- Chronic liver disease impacting the severity of acute pancreatitis: a detailed narrative review of the literature.Frontiers in gastroenterology (Lausanne, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Cumulative burden and dynamic trajectories of heart rate as predictors of prognosis in acute pancreatitis: an 18-year cohort study.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundScoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking.
objectiveTo investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP.
methodsFollowing PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned.
results43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity.
conclusionsThe most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.