ArticleEpidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)2023
Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990-2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach.
Article in Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland), 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- The impact of digital interventions on health insurance coverage for reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services utilization in Kakamega, Kenya: a cluster randomized controlled trial.Health policy and planning · 2024Trial
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- Modeling and forecasting neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: a comparative study using statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Institutional Delivery Dropout (IDD) Among Nigerian Women: An Exploratory Study Using SHAP Interpretability.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Article
- National mortality burden attributable to the unprecedented heatwave in 2022 in China.Military Medical Research · 2025Article
- Poverty and women's health in Somaliland: examining body mass index and maternal mortality.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Article
- Impact of Ghana's fee exemption policy on maternal health service utilisation: an inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis of pooled national data.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Article
- Individual and community-level factors associated with adequate antenatal care service utilization in sub-Saharan Africa.Tropical medicine and health · 2024Article
- The epidemiology and risk factors for postnatal complications among postpartum women and newborns in southwestern Uganda: A prospective cohort study.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.
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