ArticleTobacco induced diseases2023
Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.
Article in Tobacco induced diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Economic and econometric methods to measure the illicit tobacco trade: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Trends in the illicit tobacco market in New Zealand: a consumption gap analysis.BMJ public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe tobacco industry claims that tobacco taxes are responsible for increased illicit trade in Chile, which they estimated at 37% in 2022. However, the evolution of cigarette consumption, estimated from population surveys, and of tax-paying cigarettes shows a decreasing penetration of illicit trade since 2018.
methodsA gap analysis was used to estimate the evolution of illicit trade based on an arithmetic identity stating that total national cigarette consumption over a given period is equal to the registered consumption as paying taxes plus the cigarettes that are consumed nationally without paying taxes.
resultsIllicit trade penetration in Chile was around 10% in 2020, less than half of what the tobacco industry claimed. In addition, the evolution of real prices of cigarettes, calculated using tax collection data, indicates that real prices net of tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2015-2021, a period with no changes in tobacco taxation. The cheapest cigarettes, presumably competing with illicit cigarettes, registered the most significant price increase.
conclusionsClaims of increasing illicit trade penetration in Chile are unfounded and are not supported by data on consumption and tax-paying cigarettes.
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