ArticleScientific reports2023
Large numbers of patients are needed to obtain additional approvals for new cancer drugs: A retrospective cohort study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pivotal studies of pharmacotherapies approved by the US FDA for cancer treatment: a meta-analysis.The oncologist · 2026Pooled it
- New cancer medicines in Europe 2010-2020: comparison of medicines with or without extensions of indications.BMJ open · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Patients endure risk and uncertainty when they participate in clinical trials. We previously estimated that 12,217 patient-participants are required to bring a new cancer drug to market. However, many development efforts are aimed at extending the label of already approved drugs. Herein, we estimate the number of patients required to extend the indication of an FDA approved cancer drug. We identified all anti-cancer drugs approved by the FDA 2012 to 2015. We searched clinicaltrials.gov to identify all drug development trajectories (i.e., a series of one or more clinical trials testing a unique drug-indication pairing) launched after FDA approval for each drug. We identified which trajectories produced the following milestones: secondary FDA approvals, secondary FDA approvals achieving substantial clinical benefit in ESMO-MCBS, and recommendations in NCCN clinical practice guidelines. Using the total enrollment, we estimated the number of patients needed to reach each milestone. Forty-two drugs were approved by the FDA between 2012 and 2015, leading to 451 post-approval trajectories enrolling 129,548 patients. Fourteen secondary FDA approvals were identified, of which 4 met the ESMO-MCBS definition of substantial clinical benefit. Fourteen NCCN off-label recommendations were obtained. A total of 9253, 32,387 and 4627 patients were needed to attain an FDA approval, an approval with substantial clinical benefit on ESMO-MCBS, and an NCCN guideline recommendation, respectively. The number of patients needed to obtain a first secondary FDA approval was 16,596. Large numbers of patients are needed to extend the label of prior FDA approved drugs. Label extension after approval entails lower marginal costs for developers. However, extra knowledge available to researchers about a drug's safety and pharmacology after FDA approval does not appear to translate into reduced patient numbers required for developing new cancer applications.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.