Variation in Cumulative Childhood Risks of Parental Imprisonment and Foster Care Removal by State and Race/Ethnicity.

The racialized nature of state intervention into family life has increasingly called attention to the impact of parental incarceration and foster care placement on the wellbeing of children across the United States. Yet little is known about how these interventions collectively operate at a macro-level in the lives of children. This study estimates the cumulative childhood risks of experiencing parental imprisonment or foster care placement for White, Black, and Hispanic children across fourteen states. Drawing on policy regime theory, I identify subnational family intervention regimes based on the relative risks of 'right' prison-driven and 'left' welfare-driven intervention, examining how these regimes vary across both states and racial/ethnic subgroups. In documenting variation in family intervention regimes across states and race/ethnicity, this study offers three key findings. First, I find evidence of foster care's unique position within policy regime thought, with most intervention regimes misaligning with the traditional linear understandings of a punitive-protective continuum. Second, where regimes do align with policy regime theory, I document a clear racial divergence in that operation, with White children exclusively facing welfare-driven risks while Black and Hispanic children exclusively facing prison-driven risks of family intervention. Finally, I present evidence that Black children consistently and uniquely face high risks of intervention that go unshared with their resident peers, further underscoring the deeply racialized nature of state intervention in the United States.