Evidence map›Paper›PMID 37741499›Full record

ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2023

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.

Parastu Kasaie, Cameron Stewart, Elizabeth Humes, Lucas Gerace, Emily P Hyle, Lauren C Zalla, Peter F Rebeiro, Michael J Silverberg, Anna A Rubtsova, Ashleigh J Rich and 6 more

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Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Parastu KasaieDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. Electronic address: pkasaie@jhu.edu.
Cameron StewartDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
Elizabeth HumesDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
Lucas GeraceDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
Emily P HyleMedical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston; Harvard Medical School, Boston.
Lauren C ZallaDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
Peter F RebeiroDepartment of Medicine & Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN.
Michael J SilverbergDivision of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland.
Anna A RubtsovaEmory University Rollins School of Public Health, Department of Behavioral, Social, and Health Education Sciences, Atlanta, GA.
Ashleigh J RichDepartment of Social Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill.
Kelly GeboDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
Catherine R LeskoDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
Anthony T FojoDepartment of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
Raynell LangDepartment of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Jessie K EdwardsDepartment of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill.
Keri N AlthoffDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.

Funding

WOMEN'S HEALTH AGENDAU01AI038858 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI BENSON, CONSTANCE ANN · 1996 to 2008
$157.5M
AIDS Clinical Trials Group NetworkU01AI068636 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI KURITZKES, DANIEL R. · 2006 to 2010
$147.1M
UCSF CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTEUL1RR024131 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI JOHNSTON, S. CLAIBORNE · 2006 to 2011
$111.2M
University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS ResearchP30AI027757 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI EDWIN ROBERTO ORELLANA · 1988 to 2026
$104.9M
Unsolicited R24 for the CFAR-Network of Integrated Clinical Sciences, CNICSR24AI067039 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI Michael S. Saag · 2006 to 2026
$99.4M
Virology CoreP30AI027763 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MALLORY O JOHNSON · 1988 to 2026
$93.6M
Implementing a Maternal health and PRegnancy Outcomes Vision for Everyone (IMPROVE)UL1TR002378 · NCATS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Andres J Garcia, Elizabeth O. Ofili · 2017 to 2026
$92.1M
Virology CoreP30AI027767 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI Latesha Ellen Elopre · 1988 to 2026
$84.1M
STATISTICAL AND DATA MANAGEMENT CENTERU01AI038855 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI HUGHES, MICHAEL DAVID · 1996 to 2006
$78.1M
Engaging University of California Stakeholders for Biorespository ResearchUL1TR000004 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GRANDIS, JENNIFER RUBIN · 2012 to 2015
$78.0M
Studies of Ocular Complications of AIDS - Coordinating CenterU10EY008057 · NEI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI VAN NATTA, MARK L · 1988 to 2012
$78.0M
Virology, Immunology, and Microbiology CoreP30AI050410 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI DAVID M. MARGOLIS · 2001 to 2026
$76.9M
Intramural NIH HHS Z01 CP010176NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR000421NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000004NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000083NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002378NCI NIH HHS N01 CP001004NCI NIH HHS N02 CP055504NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024131NEI NIH HHS K23 EY013707NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008052NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008057NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008067NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146192NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146193NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146194NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146201NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146202NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146203NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146204NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146205NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146208NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146240NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146241NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146242NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146245NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146333NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA016893NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA013566NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA020790NIAAA NIH HHS U24 AA020794NIAID NIH HHS F31 AI124794NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI093197NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI131895NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI138853NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI065298NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI118591NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027757NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027763NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027767NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036219NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI050409NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI050410NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI110527NIAID NIH HHS R24 AI067039NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI102623NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038855NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038858NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068634NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068636NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069432NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069434NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069918NIA NIH HHS R01 AG053100NIA NIH HHS R01 AG069575NIA NIH HHS R56 AG081148NIDA NIH HHS F31 DA037788NIDA NIH HHS K24 DA000432NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA011602NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA012568NIDA NIH HHS R34 DA045592NIDA NIH HHS U01 DA036935NIMHD NIH HHS G12 MD007583NIMHD NIH HHS R01 MD018539NIMHD NIH HHS U54 MD007587NIMH NIH HHS K08 MH118094NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH062246
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeModel-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates.

methodsUsing an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population.

resultsAmong the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates.

conclusionsOur results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.

Indexed as

EthnicityHIV InfectionsAge DistributionComputer SimulationFemaleHumansMalePopulation DensityUnited StatesAgingComputer simulationHispanic ethnicityHIVMortalityPeople who inject drugsRacial disparities

Identifiers

PMID37741499
PMCPMC10841391

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.