ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2023
Development and temporal validation of clinical prediction models for 1-year disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery. The Norwich Lumbar Surgery Predictor (development version).
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- The impact of overall lumbar disc degeneration burden on disability outcomes following surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis due to osteoarthritis.Osteoarthritis and cartilage open · 2026Article
- Generalisable prediction models for outcomes after lumbar spinal stenosis surgery: a model development and external validation study.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Can 3-month models or observed 3- or 6-month patient-reported outcome measures accurately predict 12-month disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery?Archives of orthopaedic and trauma surgery · 2025Article
- Incidental durotomy in lumbar decompressive surgery: incidence and risk-factors, and the effect of durotomy on hospital and patient metrics.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeTo identify clinical predictors and build prediction models for 1-year patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) after lumbar decompressive surgery for disc herniation or spinal stenosis.
methodsThe study included 1835 cases, with or without additional single-level fusion, from a single centre from 2008 through 2020. General linear models imputed with 37 clinical variables identified 18 significant 1-year PROM predictors for retention in development models. Interaction of surgical indication with each predictor was tested. Temporal validation was conducted at the same centre on cases through 2021. R
resultsA total 1228 (67%) had complete data for inclusion in model development. Predictors of ODI were baseline PROMs (ODI, back pain, leg pain), work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, multiple-joint osteoarthritis, female, diabetes, current smoker, rheumatic disorder, lower limb arthroplasty, mobility aided, provider status, facet cyst, scoliosis, and age, with BMI significantly associated with stenosis. Temporal validation (n = 188) found the ODI model R
conclusionImportant PROM predictors are baseline PROMs, specific co-morbidities, work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, female, and smoking status. The ODI model predicted the likelihood of achieving a satisfactory state of both disability and pain.
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